India, one of the leading exporters of steel billets, recorded a 33% m-o-m rise in its billet export volumes in Jul’21. The volumes stood at 0.73 million tonnes (mn t) last month as against 0.55 mn t in Jun’21, as per customs data collated by SteelMint.
In Apr-May’21, mills saw a slump in demand in the domestic market due to a resurgence of the second wave of Covid-19 which led to lockdowns. At that time, mills started booking large export volumes to avoid inventory pile-up. Against the usual inventory level of 12-15 days, these had increased to around 20-25 days.
Indonesia largest importer
Indonesia turned out to be the largest importer of Indian steel billets at 0.12 mn t in Jul’21, surpassing Nepal and China when compared to the corresponding period last year (CPLY).
China continued to remain in the second position among the top importers’ list in Jul’21 with 0.11 mn t followed by Nepal with 0.08 mn t. Indian billet exporters were seen exploring alternative markets like Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and Turkey to sell their cargos after China toughened berthing norms for Indian parcels towards end-May’21 while vessel availability also became an issue because of the pandemic.
Indian billet exports into Indonesia witnessed a significant growth of 38% m-o-m in Jul’21 while those to China and Nepal were down m-o-m by 18% and 12%, respectively.
India’s steel billet exports saw a decrease of 10% in Jan-Jul’21 at 3.5 mn t as compared to 3.9 mn t in Jan-Jul’20. On a y-o-y basis, Nepal was the largest importer with 0.75 mn t followed by China and Indonesia with 0.65 mn t and 0.44 mn t, respectively.
Price trends
SteelMint’s assessment for Indian billet (150mm, 3SP/4SP) export prices fell to $610-615/t FoB east coast India in early-Jun’21 after peaking to $690-695/t FoB levels in mid-May’21.
Outlook
Indian billet export volumes are expected to remain supported in the current month on the back of active bookings made by mills for August shipments. Factors supporting Indian billet export bookings are Chinese steel production curbs, which are likely to keep demand for imported billets high and power crisis in Iran, a major billets exporter, due to which several mills held back their export allocations.
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