India’s billet export shipments witnessed a three-fold rise in CY ’20 to reach 6.42 mn t, amid increased buying from China and SE Asian countries. During CY ’20, the Chinese buying witnessed a significant rise of twelve-folds, amid low inventories and high domestic prices. While exports to SE Asian nations (Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand) rose by three folds.
JSPL, RINL, SAIL, and JSW steel stood as the predominant suppliers during the period under consideration. The average export shipments of these mills rose by around two-folds, on a y-o-y basis. The JSPL shipments have crossed 1.7 mn t to register a four-fold y-o-y growth. We have also seen exports from companies like Tata and Electrosteel, which are not regular billet exporters, and according to our database, they haven’t exported billets since 2018.
The shipments have touched a new high during Q2 CY ’20. However, amid improving domestic demand, they started posing a downward trend since Aug ’20. For instance, SteelMint billet index (IF route), Exw-Raipur rose by INR 12,300 ($168) from INR 27,700/t ($377/t) on 11 Jul ‘20 to INR 35,200/t (480/t) on 30 Nov ’21.
We have also analyzed India’s billet export shipment trend for the past five years. According to our analysis, India exports two-three mn t billet every year. However, due to sluggish domestic demand amid the COVID-19 outbreak, export shipments from India have registered a sharp rise during CY ’20.
Outlook: The domestic demand is improving, so mills are likely to remain focused on the domestic market. Hence, in the coming months, Indian billet export shipments are likely to stay on par with Nov /Dec ’20 or could even witness a fall.
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