- Domestic prices weaken as sluggish buying pushes Delhi wheat to INR 2,925/qtl
- Higher Bangladesh bids, improving border movement support export enquiries
Wheat prices remained under pressure in India on 17 September as sluggish domestic buying weighed on market sentiment. Prices in Delhi’s Lawrence Road market declined INR 15/qtl to INR 2,925/qtl and are down around INR 40/qtl over the past week. With the key INR 2,950/qtl support breached, market attention has shifted to INR 2,900/qtl. However, firmer Bangladesh bids and improving export enquiries from eastern India are providing some support.
Domestic market remains weak
Domestic wheat demand remained subdued across major markets, with limited mill and mandi buying keeping prices under pressure. Bengal prices declined INR 10-15/qtl to around INR 2,980/qtl, while Bengaluru prices fell by a similar margin to INR 3,080-3,090/qtl. Begusarai prices remained stable at INR 2,775-2,825/qtl.
Arrivals from rural areas of Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh into mills remained normal. However, farmers were reluctant to sell at lower price levels, which could restrict availability if prices decline further. In Kolkata, prices recovered INR 5-10/qtl during the evening session, indicating some improvement in buying interest linked to export demand.
Bangladesh bids support export enquiries
Export demand from eastern India has improved as Bangladesh importers raised bids to $320-322/t from $315-317/t earlier. Indian exporters are seeking around $323-325/t.
A weaker Indian rupee has improved export competitiveness, while easing restrictions on unloading and truck movement at the Bangladesh border have improved trade conditions. However, the $3/t gap between Bangladesh bids and Indian offers remains a constraint for actual deal volumes. The narrowing of this gap will be important for sustaining export-led buying in eastern India.
Global wheat futures under pressure
CBOT wheat futures closed lower on Thursday amid expectations of ample global supplies. The December 2026 contract opened at 730.6 cents/bushel, touched 735.4 cents and fell to 716.4 cents before settling at 727 cents, down 3.6 cents or 0.5%.
March 2027 declined 3.6 cents to 743 cents/bushel, while May 2027 fell 4 cents to 750 cents. December Soft Red Winter wheat settled at $7.27/bushel, down 3.75 cents, while Hard Red Winter wheat closed at $7.945/bushel, down 5 cents. Spring wheat ended at $7.525/bushel, down 3.5 cents.
Higher global production adds pressure
The International Grains Council raised its 2026/27 global wheat production estimate by 3 mnt to 820 mnt, supported by improved prospects in Australia and Ukraine. The higher production outlook reinforces expectations of ample supplies and could limit global price recovery.
US wheat net export sales for the week ended 10 September stood at 325,900 t, within the trade estimate of 250,000-450,000 t, indicating steady but broadly expected export demand.
Meanwhile, Turkiye has proposed peace talks involving Russia and Ukraine aimed at reducing attacks on Black Sea shipping. Any easing of tensions could improve grain movement, although the risk of disruptions remains.
Outlook
Indian wheat prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term. Weak domestic demand will continue to weigh on prices, while stronger Bangladesh bids and export enquiries could limit downside. INR 2,900/qtl remains the key support for Delhi prices.
The higher global production outlook may cap recovery, while farmer selling resistance, export demand, Black Sea risks and limited government wheat availability could prevent a sharp fall. Daily arrivals, mill buying and the gap between Bangladesh bids and Indian export offers will remain key indicators for price direction.
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