India: Turmeric prices strengthen as futures rise despite higher arrivals

• Ex-Nizamabad benchmark rises 2.7% W-o-W to INR 20,612/qtl, while Ex-Sangli declines 0.2% to INR 22,830/qtl
• October and December futures gain 5.2% and 5.5%, respectively, amid shifting open interest

India’s turmeric market recorded mixed benchmark movements during the week ended October 9, as futures strengthened despite higher arrivals and rising aggregate stocks. The BigMint Ex-Nizamabad benchmark increased 2.7% W-o-W to INR 20,612/quintal (qtl) from INR 20,158/qtl, while the Ex-Sangli benchmark declined 0.2% to INR 22,830/qtl from INR 22,875/qtl. Arrivals across tracked markets rose 31% to 4,062 mt from 3,100 mt, indicating increased physical availability.

Futures strengthen amid shifting positions

October turmeric futures rose 5.2% W-o-W to INR 22,572/qtl from INR 21,490/qtl, while open interest declined 11% to 34,310 contracts from 38,565 t. The combination of rising prices and falling open interest suggests short covering in the October contract.

December futures advanced 5.5% to INR 22,968/qtl from INR 21,760/qtl, while open interest surged 140.4% to 13,040 t from 5,425 t. Rising prices alongside higher open interest indicate fresh position building, consistent with bullish participation in the deferred contract.

Stocks increase alongside arrivals

Aggregate turmeric stocks across Erode, Nizamabad, Sangli and Basmat rose 2.7% W-o-W to 20,771 t from 20,225 t. Erode stocks remained unchanged at 736 t, while Nizamabad stocks increased to 3,779 t from 3,704 t. Basmat stocks rose to 9,412 t from 8,828 t, whereas Sangli stocks declined to 6,844 t from 6,957 t.

The increase in arrivals and aggregate stocks points to greater supply availability. However, the divergent benchmark movements suggest that price trends remain uneven across markets.

Outlook

Turmeric prices are likely to retain a mixed-to-firm undertone in the near term. Gains in both futures contracts, particularly the increase in December open interest, indicate continued bullish participation.

However, higher arrivals and aggregate stocks could limit further advances if demand fails to absorb the additional supply.