- Nearby NCDEX contracts strengthen as traders build fresh positions
- Improved monsoon rainfall eases immediate concerns over upcoming crop
Turmeric prices remained firm during the assessment week ended 17 July, supported by lower arrivals and steady buying in physical markets. Spot prices recorded strong gains across key trading centres, while nearby NCDEX futures advanced on fresh buying interest. Although warehouse stocks showed mixed movement, reduced arrivals and expectations of tighter supplies continued to underpin market sentiment.
Spot prices strengthen on lower arrivals
Sangli spot prices increased 14.2% w-o-w to INR 21,401 per quintal from INR 18,742 per quintal, while Nizamabad prices rose 16.3% w-o-w to INR 20,046 per quintal from INR 17,230 per quintal.
Market arrivals declined 8% w-o-w to 10,920 mt from 11,875 mt, limiting fresh supplies. With arrivals slowing across Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu after the peak marketing season, traders continued to procure stocks, supporting prices.
Erode also witnessed a strong rally. Finger turmeric traded at INR 19,779 per quintal, compared with INR 15,199 per quintal on 19 June and around INR 14,000 per quintal in April. Bulb turmeric strengthened to INR 17,632 per quintal, reflecting firm demand amid limited availability.
Futures remain supported despite mixed warehouse stocks
The bullish sentiment in physical markets was reflected in NCDEX futures. The August contract settled at INR 21,750 per quintal, up 14.5% w-o-w, while the October contract gained 9.2% to INR 21,006 per quintal. Open interest in the August contract increased marginally to 29,125 lots from 28,995 lots, while October open interest climbed to 7,341 lots from 4,505 lots, indicating fresh buying interest. December open interest declined sharply to 295 lots, reflecting rollover into nearby contracts.
NCDEX warehouse stocks remained mixed, with inventories increasing at Sangli, Basmat and Erode Salem, while Nizamabad stocks declined, indicating stronger physical offtake despite comfortable exchange inventories.
Improved monsoon eases concerns, but fundamentals stay supportive
Following the sharp rally, turmeric futures corrected modestly, with the benchmark contract settling 1.19% lower at INR 21,492 per quintal as improved monsoon rainfall across major producing regions encouraged profit booking and eased immediate concerns over the upcoming crop. Good rainfall is expected to accelerate Kharif sowing and may encourage farmers to increase acreage as prices remain attractive. However, market participants believe the correction is largely technical, as the fundamental outlook remains constructive.
Industry participants in Erode said wholesalers continue to build inventories in anticipation of tighter supplies, while farmers noted that most of the previous crop had already been sold before the recent price surge. Although improved rainfall has reduced immediate fears of production losses, sowing progress will depend on the distribution of rainfall in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, lower arrivals, tight spot availability, and steady export demand are expected to limit downside and keep prices well supported.
Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to remain firm with intermittent corrections in the near term. While favourable monsoon conditions could improve crop prospects and cap further upside, lower arrivals, inventory accumulation, and sustained domestic and export demand are likely to provide underlying support. Market participants will closely track rainfall distribution, sowing progress, and export demand, as these factors will determine the medium-term price direction.
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