- Sangli prices increase 4% w-o-w; Nizamabad remains largely stable
- Arrivals fall 19% w-o-w, but higher stocks, weak futures cap price gains
India’s turmeric market strengthened during the week ended September 4, with lower arrivals supporting spot prices, although gains remained uneven across major markets. BigMint’s Sangli benchmark rose 3.6% week on week (WoW) to INR 22,738/qtl from INR 21,949/qtl on August 28. Nizamabad prices edged up 0.3% to INR 20,047/qtl from INR 19,980/qtl. Arrivals declined 19.1% to 4,560 mt from 5,636 mt, providing near-term supply-side support. However, weaker futures and higher reported stocks suggest that the recent price strength has not yet translated into broad-based bullish sentiment.
Spot market gains remain uneven
Sangli recorded the stronger price increase, while Nizamabad remained largely stable. The divergence reflects differences in local buying interest, market availability and trade activity. Lower arrivals have supported prices, but the extent of further gains will depend on demand and the availability of existing stocks.
The uneven price response suggests that buying interest has not strengthened uniformly across markets. Production-related sentiment also remains cautious, with market participants weighing current availability against expectations for the next crop.
Futures market signals caution
Futures moved lower despite the firm spot market. The October contract declined 1.0% WoW to INR 20,402/qtl from INR 20,600/qtl, while December fell 0.6% to INR 20,760/qtl from INR 20,876/qtl.
October open interest (OI) declined 1.8% to 36,085 contracts from 36,745 alongside lower prices, indicating long unwinding. December OI increased 9.1% to 1,620 contracts from 1,485, while prices declined, suggesting fresh short buildup. The mixed OI movement indicates cautious positioning, with the futures market yet to confirm the strength seen in spot prices.
The weaker futures trend may also reflect profit booking and cautious forward positioning, particularly as higher stocks limit expectations of a sustained supply squeeze.
Higher stocks cap upside
Reported stocks across Erode Salem, Nizamabad, Sangli, and Basmat increased 2.6% w-o-w to 20,486 tonnes from 19,962 tonnes . Stocks in Nizamabad, Sangli and Basmat rose, while Erode Salem remained unchanged.
The increase in reported stocks, despite lower arrivals, suggests that supply availability remains adequate in the reported markets. This limits the extent to which the decline in arrivals can be interpreted as a tightening supply situation.
Outlook
The near-term outlook remains cautiously firm, supported by lower arrivals and stronger Sangli spot prices. However, higher stocks and weak futures could cap further gains. Unless arrivals decline further or demand strengthens, turmeric prices may remain mixed, with spot prices finding support but the upside limited by adequate availability and subdued forward sentiment.
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