Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices sustained downward pressures, witnessing declines of up to INR 500/t ($6/t), establishing a new range between INR 53,400-56,500/t ($642-679/t). Conversely, cold-rolled (CR) coil prices exhibited a degree of stability, maintaining a range of INR 58,500-63,400/t ($703-762/t) across various markets. It is noteworthy that trading activity can be witnessed at lower price levels due to limited supply, as market participants await clarity on next month’s list prices and any potential price supports for the current month.
BigMint’s benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRC (2.5-8mm, IS2062, Gr E-250 Br.) prices fell by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 53,900/t ($648/t) on 28 May 2024, compared to the previous week. Also, CRC (0.90mm, IS 513, CR1) prices went down by INR 300/t ($4/t) to INR 60,600/t ($728/t) during the same period. These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai, excluding 18% GST, and are for cut-to-length (CTL) deliveries. (INR 1 = USD 0.0120188 ; USD 1 = INR 83.203)
Market updates
1. Market awaiting clarity from mills, election results: The trade market is eagerly anticipating price support from mills for the current month, as well as insights into the list prices to be announced for the upcoming month. Presently, the trade market exhibits sustained sluggishness, primarily influenced by subdued demand. However, buyers are showing a willingness to engage in price negotiations below the listed rates, opting for smaller-scale purchases aligned with their immediate needs.
“Market demand has softened, and material can be sold only at the lower band of the price range,” observed market participants. They further noted that the market anticipates a price support announcement, as current trading prices are nearing or falling below mills’ list prices, making it difficult for businesses to operate profitably. Additionally, any increase in list prices could lead to a resurgence of imports.
2. Export, import trends: India’s imports of bulk HRCs and plates have begun to grow as per the recent vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. An import deal was heard concluded for 40,000t at $592-596/CFR for July shipment from Vietnam. However, exports have slowed down.
Indian steel mills are prioritising the domestic market for hot-rolled coils (HRC), putting export offers to Southeast Asia and the Middle East (ME) on hold for another week.
Indian steel mills continued to hold their HRC export offers (S275, 3mm) to Europe this week as well.
Outlook
As the market awaits the price announcements from mills and with impending election results, expectations are that the market will maintain a range-bound trajectory at current levels.