- Provisional safeguard duty encourages price hikes
- Vietnam, Korea impending dumping duties to hit India
Trade-level coated flat steel prices increased by about INR 1,400-1,900/t0nne ($16-22/t) w-o-w, driven by multiple economic and industry-specific factors, including government policies. Preliminary findings on the steel safeguard duty laid the groundwork for interim hikes by major producers in March 2025, thereby providing the thrust to trade-level prices, which have rallied through the month.
The latest weekly assessment, on 27 March 2025, placed galvanised plain (GP, 0.8 mm/CTL, 120 gsm, IS277) steel prices at INR 63,000/t ($735/t) exy-Mumbai, with offers varying in the range of INR 62,500-64,000/t ($729-747/t). Similarly, pre-painted galvanised iron (PPGI, 0.5 mm/CTL, 90 gsm, IS14246) was assessed at INR 72,000/t ($840/t) exy-Mumbai, with offers at INR 71,500-73,000/t ($834-852/t). The prices are minus GST at 18% (USD 1 = INR 85.6960; INR 1 = USD 0.0116691).
Moreover, the GP (0.8 mm/CTL, 120 gsm, IS277) prices have risen by about INR 4,300/t ($50/t) and PPGI by INR 4,800/t ($56/t) from INR 58,700/t ($685/t) at the beginning of the month.
Market updates
Anticipation of import duties: The Indian government has been considering imposing safeguard duties on steel imports to protect domestic producers from cheaper foreign material.
India’s coated flat product import volume, at 1.28 mnt in 11MFY’2025 (April 2024 – February 2025), has already exceeded the 1.16 mnt imported in the corresponding period last year (CPLY), as per the data from the Ministry of Steel.
In February 2025, discussions intensified around the oral hearings on the anti-dumping duty (ADD) on hot-rolled coils (HRC) a substrate product for coated flats production. The oral hearing scheduled for Vietnamese HRCs on 27 February got postponed to 3 April 2025. Furthermore, the release of preliminary findings on safeguard duty by the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) on 19 March 2025 added to the sentiments, boosting prices. In the released gazette, DGTR recommended imposing a 12% safeguard duty if the imports are booked at a price lower than the threshold. The threshold price for zinc-coated flat products has been set at $861/t CIF (cost, insurance and freight) India, whereas, for colour-coated or pre-painted, at $964/t CIF India.
Interim price hikes by mills: The very anticipation of a safeguard duty and its provisional imposition led mills to raise prices multiple times in March.
In early March 2025, mills had increased list prices by INR 1,500/t, elevating the tags for GP (0.8 mm, 80 gsm, IS277) to INR 59,000-61,500/t ex-Mumbai and PPGI (0.5 mm, 90 gsm, IS14246) to INR 68,750-69,750/t ex-Mumbai.
A couple of private coated flat steel producers were heard to have announced an interim hike in their GP list prices in the last 7 days. One of the producers increased its GP (0.8 mm, 80 gsm, IS277) list tag by INR 1,250/t ($15/t) to INR 63,250/t ($738/t) ex-Mumbai on 24 March. Meanwhile, another producer increased the list price by INR 500/t ($6/t) to INR 61,250/t ($715/t) ex-Mumbai on 27 March. Prices are for coil forms, excluding GST at 18%. This further created a scope for higher quotes by distributors in the traders’ market.
Turbulent global trade scenario: The global trade market scenario has been turbulent lately amid major economies like Europe and the US fortifying their domestic markets through stringent safeguard measures. Meanwhile, in mid-February, South Korea and Vietnam also announced anti-dumping duties to guard against cheaper Chinese finished-flat product imports. This will impact India on both export and import fronts.
The diversion of export volumes from India to Europe has been restricted further by the quarterly quotas under the European Commission’s (EC) Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) system. Also, the EC has announced the abolishment of a quota carry-over from 1 April 2025 for certain grades as per the recent EC TRQ guidelines. The European quarterly import quota for Indian galvanised flat products stands around 130,218 tonnes for April- June 2025, exceeding which would attract an additional duty of 25%.
India exported around 1.04 mnt of coated flat steel in 11MFY’25 (April 2024 – February 2025) as per data from the Ministry of Steel, which is about 13% of the total production of 7.96 mnt during the said period. This is lower as compared to 11MFY’24, during which exports aggregated to around 1.65 mnt, with a 22% share in total production of 7.56 mnt during the period.
Outlook
The market scenario hints towards further increases in trade-level prices. Distribution network participants are awaiting the mills’ coated list price announcement in the next couple of days for early April 2025 sales. The estimation of the list price hike is at around INR 1,000-2,000/t.
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