India: Tomato prices strengthen as heat-hit crop tightens supplies

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Heat stress reduces summer crop availability across key producing states
Delayed kharif sowing expected to support prices through July and August

India’s tomato market has turned firm as excessive heat during February and March reduced summer crop yields, tightening supplies during the seasonal lean period. Delayed kharif sowing due to uneven monsoon progress is expected to postpone fresh arrivals, keeping market sentiment positive in the coming weeks.

Lower production supports market prices

According to the Department of Consumer Affairs, the average retail tomato price stood at INR 42.5/kg on 30 June, up 16% m-o-m and 23% y-o-y. Wholesale prices have also increased 18% over the past month and 28% compared with a year ago, reflecting tighter availability across major markets.

The government has revised India’s 2025-26 tomato production estimate to 21.5 mnt, down from 22.7 mnt in the second advance estimate, indicating a production decline of nearly 5%. The lower output is primarily attributed to heat damage in the summer crop, which typically bridges supplies until fresh kharif harvests reach the market.

Outlook

Tomato prices are expected to remain firm through July and August, supported by lower summer production and delayed kharif arrivals. However, staggered supplies from the southern states may moderate further price gains, with monsoon progress and fresh arrivals remaining key market drivers.

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