- Mills offer aggressive discounts to liquidate inventories
- Some mills plan to cut production to limit supply pressure
India’s tier-1 blast furnace (BF) steel producers have reduced rebar list prices for July 2026 deliveries by INR 1,000-3,000/t m-o-m as weak buying enquiries, rising inventories, and slow construction activity continue to weigh on market sentiment. Current mill-to-distributor list prices for IS 1786 Fe 500/550D rebars (12-32 mm) stand at INR 51,000-52,000/t ($534-4544/t) ex-works Mumbai, reflecting a sharp correction from June levels as mills attempt to stimulate demand and improve fresh order inflows.
The price correction follows sluggish procurement by distributors, limited project bookings, and increasing inventories across the supply chain. Market participants noted that the price differential between BF-route and IF-route rebars narrowed to around INR 4,000/t during June, reducing the pricing premium enjoyed by primary producers.
Demand-side fundamentals also remained limited. Slow construction activity led to cautious procurement across key consumption centres. With buying interest remaining limited, mills were compelled to offer more competitive pricing to secure new business.
BigMint assessed trade-level (distributor-to-dealer) rebar prices at INR 49,500/t ($518/t) exy-Mumbai on 7 July 2026. Meanwhile, workable project prices were heard at INR 47,000-49,000/t delivered, with primary mills offering competitive rates to secure fresh contracts amid limited demand and intensifying competition.
Market participants indicated that future pricing will largely depend on the pace of construction activity after the monsoon disruption, the replenishment of distributor inventories, and the ability of mills to improve order bookings over the coming weeks. Some major mills are planning production cuts or temporary shutdowns, which are expected to balance market supply and help stabilise rebar prices.
Factors influencing market dynamics
Inventories at mills surge: According to market participants, rebar inventories at primary mills increased by around 20% m-o-m as fresh order bookings weakened. Sources added that most previously secured project-linked orders have already been executed, leaving mills with thinner order books and reduced backlog visibility heading into July.
Aggressive discounting weighs on prices: Some mills are aggressively marketing to liquidate inventories, offering higher discounts to secure orders. This has intensified competition in the market, particularly within the BF-route rebar segment.
IF rebar prices decline sharply in Jun’26: India IF-route rebar prices declined by INR 100-2,200/t m-o-m amid moderate demand and weaker billet and sponge iron prices, pressuring mills to correct offers. Trading remained need-based, with mills reducing prices in the latter half to stimulate enquiries. Consequently, mill inventory levels declined to around 12 days from nearly 15 days earlier in the month, while order bookings improved to approximately 3-5 days.
Raw material prices mixed: Raw material costs remained mixed in June. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines index (Fe 62%) declined by INR 350/t m-o-m to INR 5,000/t, while premium hard coking coal prices rose by $4/t m-o-m to $268/t CNF Paradip.
Outlook
BF-route rebar prices are expected to remain weak in the near term as monsoon-related disruptions and slow construction activity continue to weigh on demand. Buying is likely to remain need-based, while mills may continue to offer competitive prices to support order bookings amid comfortable inventory levels. Production cuts or temporary shutdowns may help stabilise rebar prices.
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