- Elevated freight costs challenged exporters
- Buying activity remained subdued during week
India’s stainless steel longs export market remained largely stable during the assessment week ended 6 October, although buying activity was subdued. Elevated freight costs and tight scrap availability continued to pose challenges for suppliers, while weak demand in overseas markets limited fresh bookings.
The European market remained subdued following the holiday period, with buyers cautious amid ongoing uncertainty over the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and import quotas. A market participant noted that European buyers are closely monitoring the impact of CBAM on previous shipments before deciding on fresh imports. Quota-related developments are also keeping buyers cautious.
Indicative export offers for 304 bright bars were heard at around $2,375-2,385/t FOB India, while 316 bright bars were offered at around $4,350-4,360/t FOB India.
BigMint’s assessment on 6 October placed 304 bright bars at $2,350/t FOB Nhava Sheva, unchanged w-o-w and 316 bright bars at $4,330/t FOB Nhava Sheva, up by $30/t w-o-w.
Domestic longs market
India’s domestic stainless steel longs market remained relatively firm despite limited buying interest. Tight scrap availability and elevated input costs continued to provide support to seller price expectations.
BigMint’s assessment on 30 September placed 304 bright bars at INR 227,000/t exw-Mumbai, down INR 3,000/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, 316 bright bars declined by INR 2,000/t w-o-w to INR 392,000/t exw-Mumbai.
EU quotas tighten stainless longs export prospects
EU steel quota utilisation has accelerated shortly after the new quota period began on 1 October, with several country- and product-specific quotas already exhausted. On the stainless steel side, India has exceeded its quarterly quotas for stainless bars and light sections and seamless stainless tubes, with volumes awaiting customs clearance at EU ports exceeding the respective quarterly allocations. As a result, exporters may have to defer shipments to the next quota period or face the 50% out-of-quota tariff.
The rapid utilisation of quotas is adding to uncertainty for Indian stainless steel longs exporters, particularly as European buyers remain cautious amid CBAM implementation and quota-related concerns. With key stainless categories already exceeding their allocations early in the quarter, Indian bright bar exports to the EU are likely to face tighter market access during Q4. Exporters may therefore need to balance pricing with available quota space, potentially limiting shipment volumes to the region.
Global market
Taiwan’s stainless steel wire rod export prices have risen above NT$97,000/t ($3,050/t), reaching a 17-month high and increasing by more than NT$19,000/t ($597/t) over the past seven months. The increase has been supported by higher raw material costs, particularly nickel, prompting mills to raise domestic list prices and pushing export values higher.
Outlook
India’s stainless steel bright bar export market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term. Buying activity could gradually improve as overseas buyers return following the holiday period. However, subdued demand in key markets such as the UAE, elevated freight costs and ongoing trade uncertainties are likely to limit fresh bookings.
Meanwhile, tight scrap availability and elevated alloy costs are expected to keep seller price expectations firm, providing downside support to current export offers despite subdued demand.
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