- New crop arrivals expected to accelerate as weather improves
- Crop damage, decline in old stocks limit price downside
India’s soybean market has come under pressure during the week ended September 18 as new-crop arrivals begin to increase across key producing regions, although supplies remain relatively limited. Soybean plant-delivery prices in Madhya Pradesh were recently reported at INR 5,800-6,200/quintal (qtl) and Maharashtra at INR 6,000-6,300/qtl, while daily arrivals across major markets remained around 65,000-75,000 bags.
Prices at a major Maharashtra plant initially recovered to around INR 6,400/qtl during the week ended September 18 before easing to approximately INR 6,100/qtl Sas fresh crop supplies increased. The break below the INR 6,150/qtl level has weakened the near-term technical outlook, with INR 5,500/qtl emerging as the next major support.
New crop supplies gain momentum
New-crop arrivals in Madhya Pradesh have started increasing, although volumes remain below their seasonal peak and moisture levels are reportedly higher. Market participants expect arrivals to accelerate as weather conditions improve, potentially keeping prices volatile through mid-October.
Recent mandi data also show a wide spread in prices depending on location and quality. On 21 September, soybean modal prices were around INR 5,800/qtl at Latur in Maharashtra, while selected Madhya Pradesh markets were trading around INR 5,600-6,000/qtl.
The INR 6,150/qtl level is now a key reference for plant-delivery trades. A sustained recovery above this level could ease near-term selling pressure, while continued weakness could expose prices to the INR 5,500/qtl support.
Crop condition remains uneven
The supply outlook remains complicated by significant crop damage in parts of western and central India. An industry-wide survey covering 11.794 million hectares assessed 41.95% of the crop as normal, 17.43% as good and 6.71% as very good in September 2026. Meanwhile, 25.08% was classified as quite poor and 8.84% as completely damaged.
Maharashtra, covering 4.645 million hectares in the survey, had 0.832 million hectares completely damaged and another 1.891 million hectares classified as poor. Of the area covered in Madhya Pradesh (5.209 million hectares), 0.052 million hectares were completely damaged, and 0.610 million hectares were in poor condition.Karnataka, which accounted for 0.389 million hectares in the survey, had 0.097 million hectares completely damaged and 0.195 million hectares classified as poor.
The broader acreage outlook also remains subdued. Soybean sowing area was reported at 122.22 lakh hectares this season, down from 123.11 lakh hectares a year earlier.
Lower stocks meet weak crushing economics
Old soybean stocks held by processors, stockists and farmers declined 7.76% y-o-y to 1.51 million tonnes (mnt) in August 2026 from 1.637 mnt. Mandi arrivals increased 16.67% to 0.35 mnt, while crushing fell 13.89% to 0.775 mnt.
Weak downstream economics remain a constraint. Recent market reports indicate soybean meal prices have fallen significantly, while indicative crush margins have also deteriorated, reducing the incentive for processors to increase soybean purchases.
At the same time, soybean-oil imports surged to an all-time high in August, while Indian soymeal exports declined to their lowest levels in recent months, adding pressure to domestic crushing economics.
Outlook
New-crop arrivals are likely to remain the dominant price driver through mid-October. Increasing supplies could keep soybean prices under pressure, particularly if crushing demand remains weak. However, lower carryover stocks, crop damage in Maharashtra and Karnataka, and a smaller sowing area could limit the extent of the decline.
After the initial arrival pressure eases toward late October, prices could find support if crop-loss estimates translate into tighter availability and global edible-oil demand strengthens. India’s vegetable-oil market is also facing higher international prices, which could provide some support to domestic soybean-oil values and improve crushing economics.
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