India: South African portside thermal coal prices stable in uncertain market

• Domestic coal prices stay flat w-o-w
• Sponge iron prices remain stable

South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports held steady this week amid uncertain sentiments. Exw-Gangavaram RB2 (5500 NAR) remained at INR 7,600/t and RB3 (4800 NAR) at INR 6,600/t. Vizag assessments also stayed unchanged. CNF deals were heard at $76/t for RB2 and $55/t FOB for RB3. Another RB2 vessel closed at $68 FOB and one deal at $66 FOB was also reported.

Domestic coal holds firm amid weak demand

Domestic coal prices were assessed flat this week as demand stayed low and inventories remained adequate. According to BigMint, 5000 GCV and 4500 GCV grades were unchanged at INR 4,700/t and INR 4,250/t exw-Bilaspur, respectively. SECL’s recent auctions saw subdued interest due to weak industrial buying and steady offers.

Sponge iron prices remain largely stable

Sponge iron (CDRI) prices edged up by INR 50/t to INR 24,050/t exw-Rourkela. Across markets, PDRI closed at INR 21,400-26,000/t and CDRI at INR 24,200-29,000/t. The market opened on a positive note, with early buying lifting prices, though momentum softened slightly later in the day. Buyer interest, however, remained active with steady enquiries.

Port inventories dip marginally

Thermal coal stocks at Indian ports declined marginally by 0.8% to 15.87 mnt in week 25 of CY’25, from 16 mnt the previous week. Lower arrivals at key ports contributed to the dip.

Export market update: slight correction after spike

Export prices saw a minor correction after last week’s surge triggered by Iran-Israel tensions. RB2 fell by $0.5/t w-o-w to $67/t FOB, while RB3 stayed stable at $56/t FOB. Indices, which had risen by $8-9/t over the past week, dropped by around $5/t recently. The market remains volatile, with oversupply and limited demand keeping traders cautious.

Outlook

The South African thermal coal market is likely to remain subdued in the near term. Weak industrial buying, high inventories, and falling indices continue to weigh on sentiment. Export prices may stay under pressure unless freight dynamics or global demand show signs of improvement.