India starts rice marketing year 2025-26 with marginally higher stocks

• Higher consumption prospects boost govt procurements
• Stable production of 151 mnt to keep supplies robust

India’s rice industry has started the 2025-26 marketing year (MY) with high stock levels. For example, on 1 October 2025, the government’s rice stocks were estimated at 31.50 mnt, slightly up from 31 mnt a year ago. Consequently, exports are expected to be marginally higher, at around 25 mnt against 23.40 mnt in the year-ago period, owing to the removal of previous export limits on non-basmati and India’s strong position in the global market.

Reasons for higher stock levels

Govt undertakes higher procurement: The government has been procuring stocks for an extended period, which has increased inventories. The higher procurements are due to expectations of higher consumption.  As per the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), India’s total consumption is expected to be about 151 million tonnes (mnt) in MY’26, higher than earlier estimates. Domestic food and industrial usage, plus exports, are expected to remain elevated. As a result, domestic consumption is set to rise to 127 mnt from 124.20 mnt in the previous year.

Higher carry-in stocks: That apart, data shows adequate carry-in and production on the supply side. MY’26 is expected to start with 46.50 mnt of opening stocks (down 0.5 mnt y-o-y but still high) and 151 mnt of production (stable y-o-y). As such, availability is expected to be robust.

Outlook

The USDA’s models show that ending stocks will be around 45.50 mnt for MY’26. This includes about 39 mnt in government hands and 5.5 mnt in private hands.

The high ending stocks are a strategic buffer for food security at home, with potential for exports and industrial use, such as rice-based ethanol feedstock. They also indicate that domestic rice prices are likely to go down unless demand or other uses (such as ethanol) grow considerably.

However, risks are also present. The main problem will be getting the crops off the field quickly and without wasting them, while also making sure that farmers get paid for their work. This is because stocks are much higher than the government’s goal of 10-13 mnt for the early season, as per a media report.