- Imports surge to over 6 million bales amid duty exemption till Oct’26
- Delayed crop arrivals, firm global prices support cotton market
India’s opening cotton stocks for the 2026-27 crop year, beginning in October, are estimated at a record 9.36 million bales of 170 kg each, up 68% from 5.56 million bales in 2025-26, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI).
The sharp increase is mainly attributed to record cotton imports, which are estimated at 6.2 million bales for the 2025-26 season. This compares with 4.1 million bales in 2024-25 and is significantly above the usual annual import range of 1.5-2 million bales seen over the past two to three decades.
The current season’s closing stocks are estimated at 9.36 million bales, around 3.8 million bales higher than the previous year, reflecting the impact of elevated imports over the past two years.
Record imports
Cotton imports of 6.2 million bales in 2025-26 are estimated to be the highest ever recorded. Around 5.4 million bales had been imported by the end of July, while another 0.8 million bales are expected by September-end.
Cotton imports are currently duty-free until the end of October 2026, which has supported higher inflows into the domestic market.
The cotton pressing estimate for 2025-26 has also been raised to 33.9 million bales, from the earlier estimate of 33.7 million bales. The upward revision follows higher pressing estimates from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu.
Domestic cotton demand for the season is maintained at 34.8 million bales, compared with 31.9 million bales in 2024-25. Consumption stood at around 29 million bales through July.
Exports and prices
Cotton exports for 2025-26 are estimated at 1.5 million bales. Around 1.225 million bales are estimated to have been exported by the end of July.
Despite the high stock position, cotton prices remain supported by firm global prices and domestic demand. Expectations of delayed new-crop arrivals due to late sowing are also providing support to prices.
The selling price of cotton from the state-run procurement agency was raised to INR 200 per candy of 356 kg on Thursday.
The combination of record imports and higher carryover stocks is expected to provide substantial availability as the new cotton season begins. However, the timing of new-crop arrivals, import flows, domestic consumption and global price trends will continue to influence the market.
Outlook
India is expected to enter the 2026-27 cotton season with record opening stocks of 9.36 million bales, primarily due to unprecedented imports. While higher stocks are likely to improve overall domestic availability, delayed new-crop arrivals and firm global prices could continue to provide near-term support to the market.
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