- Mill inventories drop 25-30% m-o-m
- IF-rebar prices see significant uptick
Indian primary steel mills increased rebar prices by up to INR 3,000/tonne (t) ($33/t) for early-January 2026 dispatches, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices are currently at INR 51,000-53,000/t ($565-588/t) on landed basis.
Last week, trade prices of BF-rebar had jumped INR 1,200-3,300/t ($13-37/t) w-o-w on a pan India basis. Market participants had observed that buying inquiries and trade activities had improved since the last week of December.
In the projects segment, prices hovered around INR 51,000-52,000/t ($565-577/t) FOR Mumbai. Healthy order bookings supported market sentiment and prompted price hikes, with several mills also facing substantial order backlogs for the coming days.
Inventory levels at primary mills fell by around 25-30% m-o-m in early-January 2026 compared to early-December levels, according to sources.
Why did mills hike BF rebar prices?
1. IF rebar prices rise w-o-w: IF rebar trade prices strengthened across major Indian markets, supported by good demand, strong order bookings, and firm semi-finished steel prices. Improved dispatches reduced inventory pressure, keeping stocks at comfortable levels. While buyers turned cautious at higher offers, stable inflow of future orders and lower inventory levels are expected to support prices in the short term. As of 5 January, IF rebar prices rose by INR 2,600/t ($28/t) to INR 49,000/t ($544/t) exw-Mumbai.
Meanwhile, buying remained subdued this week due to elevated price levels. After sharp price hikes over the past two weeks amid adequate procurement, demand may soften, leading to possible price moderation this week.
The BF-IF rebar price spread in Mumbai stood at INR 4,000-4,500/t ($44-50/t). IF rebars continue to dominate the Indian market with a 65-70% share.
2. Raw materials prices edge up w-o-w: Prices of major raw materials increased w-o-w, supporting BF rebar prices. BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index edged up by INR 50/t ($0.55/t) w-o-w to INR 5,800/t ($64/t) ex-mines. Iron ore prices in the Odisha market remained firm this week, as assessed on 3 January, supported by active trading activity and a sharp improvement in downstream steel prices. Market participants noted that trades are now getting concluded at higher levels, while availability of material remains limited.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices were stable w-o-w at $231/t CNF Paradip.
3. Property registrations rise y-o-y: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, rose by 6% on the year to 150,231 units in 2025, as per data released by Knight Frank India. The levels are at a 14-year high.
This milestone highlights the market’s resilience and depth, supported by sustained end-user demand and a more supportive supply-side environment across both primary and secondary housing segments.
Outlook
Trade prices may remain supported at current levels on improved domestic demand in the distribution channel and projects segment.
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