- Inventories witness 30% rise m-o-m
- IF rebar prices drop on slow demand
Indian primary mills cut rebar prices by up to INR 1,000/tonne (t) ($12/t) for early-July 2025 deliveries as against prices prevailing in end-June, sources informed BigMint. Post-revision, list prices stood at INR 50,000-51,500/t ($585-603/t) on landed basis. It should be noted that mills had offered discounts/rebates to augment sales last month.
Trade-level BF rebar prices declined by INR 800/t ($9/t) w-o-w to INR 49,900/t ($584/t) exy-Mumbai, as per BigMint’s assessment on 4 July. Prices are exclusive of GST at 18%.
In the projects segment, prices opened at INR 48,500-49,500/t ($567-579/t) FOR Mumbai basis. Weak buying activities continued to weigh on market sentiments.
Rebar inventories at Tier-1 mills increased around 30% m-o-m in early-July, sources informed, owing to sluggish sales in the previous month, as volatility in prices and subdued demand posed challenges for mills in securing new orders.
Update on projects
Kalpataru Projects International Ltd (KPIL), along with its international subsidiaries, has secured new orders worth approximately INR 989 crore. These include significant contracts in the overseas power transmission and distribution (T&D) segment, further strengthening its global presence.
Factors behind market dynamics
1. IF rebar prices decline m-o-m in June: IF rebar trade prices witnessed a consistent downtrend last month, impacted by weak construction demand, monsoon disruptions, and labour shortages. Despite improved inquiries in some markets, order bookings remained subdued due to cautious buying and limited procurement. Inventories rose to 12-15 days. Continued pressure from falling semi-finished and sponge iron prices weighed on market sentiment, prompting mills to offer discounts and consider production cuts. IF rebar prices dropped by INR 1,100/t ($13/t) m-o-m to a monthly average of INR 43,700/t ($511/t) exw-Mumbai in June 2025.
The BF-IF rebar price gap narrowed to around INR 6,500/t ($/t) in Mumbai. IF rebars hold a dominant 65-70% market share in India.
2. Property registrations stable m-o-m: Property registrations in Mumbai, the country’s largest real estate market, remained largely stable m-o-m at 11,521 units in June, as per data released by Knight Frank India. On a y-o-y basis, registrations edged down by 1% as compared with 11,600 units in June 2024.
However, during H1CY’25, property registrations witnessed a rise of 3% y-o-y to 74,500 units as against 72,015 units seen in the same period last year.
3. Raw material prices stable w-o-w: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index remained stable w-o-w at INR 4,800/t ($56/t) on 28 June amid stable prices. Mid-grade fines saw a slight softening, while limited supply kept high-grade fines firm. Trading activity was moderate, driven by steady demand from local steelmakers.
India’s largest merchant iron ore mining company, NMDC, has decreased list prices of iron ore calibrated lump ore (CLO) and fines, BigMint learnt from sources. The miner fixed prices of DR CLO (10-40 mm, Fe 67%) at INR 6,400/t ($75/t) and of iron ore fines (-10 mm, Fe 64%) at INR 4,850/t ($57/t), a decrease of INR 650/t ($8/t) and 500/t ($6/t), respectively.
Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices were unchanged w-o-w at $189/t CNF Paradip.
Outlook
Market participants expect trade prices to remain under pressure, with a possibility of these reaching a bottom in the coming days.
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