India: Price gap between iron ore lumps and fines narrows. Will trend continue in CY’24?

The price gap or differential between iron ore lumps and fines in the domestic market seems to have narrowed significantly over the last two years, BigMint assessment reveals. This is to be understood as directly co-related with higher exports of iron ore fines and pellets during the period. Data show that in Odisha, a state accounting for over 50% of the country’s annual iron ore output, the gap has narrowed since 2021. For instance, the differential between Fe63% lump ore (5-18mm) and Fe62% fines prices in Odisha, as assessed by BigMint, has reduced from INR 3,000/t in March’21 to INR 1,500/t currently. In fact, the gap between Fe63% fines and lumps of the same grade in Odisha stands at around INR 1,000/t currently. Our assessment shows that NMDC iron ore prices, too, reveal the same trend.