- Inventories accumulate in pithead regions, northern states
- Drawdown in west, south raises risks of tight power supply
India’s coal stock position at thermal power plants remained broadly stable at around 59 million tonnes (mnt) through March, but the underlying distribution of those stocks has become increasingly uneven. At first glance, this suggests a system that is adequately supplied. However, a closer look at plant-level data reveals a different story — coal is available, but not necessarily where it is needed most. As the system transitions into peak summer demand, this divergence between surplus and deficit regions is becoming more pronounced.
National position masks regional divergence
The stability in national coal stocks over the month is important. It confirms that coal production and overall supply have kept pace with consumption. There is no evidence of a structural shortage.
India’s coal stock levels recorded a marginal increase over the one-month period ending March 2026. According to data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA), total coal inventories stood at 58.85 mnt at the end of February 2026. By 31 March 2026, stocks had edged up to 59.28 mnt, indicating a modest buildup of approximately 0.43 mnt during the month.
Yet, while the aggregate number has held steady, the distribution of these stocks across regions has shifted materially, creating pockets of surplus and zones of stress.
Surplus concentrates in north, pithead regions
Coal stocks remain strongest in regions closest to supply. In northern states such as Haryana and Punjab, plants are operating with stocks well above normative requirements, often in the range of 150% to 180%. These plants have not only maintained their buffers through March but, in some cases, strengthened them.
An even stronger position is visible in the pithead belt of Chhattisgarh, where plants such as Korba West and Marwa are holding stocks at well above 150% of normative levels. These stations benefit from direct access to coal mines, insulating them from logistical constraints that affect more distant plants.
Uttar Pradesh presents a more mixed picture. Large base-load plants such as Anpara and Obra remain adequately stocked, ensuring system stability. However, smaller units such as Panki and Parichha are operating with thinner buffers, indicating that even within well-supplied regions, distribution within the state can vary.
The key takeaway from these regions is clear: coal availability is not the constraint — proximity to supply is the advantage.
Eastern region: Stable but carrying the system
The eastern region, which includes West Bengal, Odisha and Jharkhand, remains broadly stable. Most plants are operating in the 80% to 100% range of normative stocks, with some stronger and some weaker units.
What makes the east particularly important is its role in the broader system. Sitting between pithead production centres and consumption-heavy regions in the west and south, it has effectively become a transit and balancing corridor.
Stocks here are not building aggressively, but they are sufficient to sustain operations while supporting outward coal movement. This indicates that the region is absorbing part of the system’s logistical burden, ensuring that surplus coal from pithead areas flows to deficit regions.
Western India: Stocks erode through March
The most visible deterioration over the month has occurred in Maharashtra, where several large thermal power plants have seen their stock positions weaken significantly relative to requirement.
These levels indicate that coal consumption has outpaced replenishment through March. Even where absolute stock volumes appear reasonable, they are insufficient relative to plant requirements.
Gujarat is relatively better positioned, with plants such as Ukai and Wanakbori operating closer to 80-85% of normative levels, but these too are below ideal comfort thresholds.
The broader trend suggests that western India has transitioned from a balanced position in February to a stressed position by end-March, driven by a combination of rising demand and slower coal inflows.
Southern region: Critical stress emerging
The most concerning developments are in the southern region, where several plants are now operating at or near critical levels.
In Andhra Pradesh, at least two plants have already been flagged as critical, with one facing coal handling and unloading constraints, further worsening the situation. Across Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, most plants are operating in the sub-50% range, leaving limited room to absorb further supply disruptions.
This marks the south as the primary risk zone in the current coal-power balance.
A distribution problem, not a supply problem
What stands out from the March data is that India’s coal system is functioning well at the aggregate level but struggling at the distribution level.
Coal has continued to accumulate in pithead regions and northern states. At the same time, stocks have been drawn down in western and southern India.
This divergence has resulted in a sharp increase in the number of plants operating below 50% of normative stock levels, particularly outside the core supply regions.
The road ahead
As India moves into peak summer demand, the implications of this imbalance become more significant. Higher temperatures will push up electricity consumption, increasing coal burn rates at already stressed plants.
The immediate priority is therefore not to increase coal production, but to improve the speed and efficiency of coal movement — particularly into Maharashtra and the southern grid.
If this imbalance is not corrected quickly, regional tightness could emerge during peak summer demand, even with a strong national inventory on paper.
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