India: Portside thermal coal stocks decline w-o-w as evacuation outpaces arrivals

• Port arrivals and dispatches remain uneven
• Weak demand limits fresh stock accumulation

India’s portside thermal coal inventories declined 3% w-o-w to 12.91 mnt in week 52 from 13.31 mnt in week 51. Unlike the previous week’s rotation-heavy pattern, the latest data pointed to net stock drawdown, driven by faster evacuation at several large ports and limited fresh arrivals amid year-end slowdown. While a few ports recorded marginal stock builds, these were insufficient to offset broad-based declines across coasts.

East coast: Paradip stable, Dhamra weakens

East coast trends softened overall. Stocks in Paradip edged up marginally by 0.7% w-o-w to 1.73 mnt from 1.72 mnt, indicating balanced arrivals and dispatches. In contrast, Dhamra saw a decline of 8.4% to 1.24 mnt from 1.35 mnt, reflecting higher evacuation and slower replenishment during the week.

West coast: Kandla rebounds, Mundra draws down

West coast movements remained mixed. Kandla recorded a sharp build-up of 40.9% to 0.55 mnt from 0.39 mnt, supported by fresh arrivals after earlier depletion. Meanwhile, Mundra saw a notable drawdown, falling 10.2% to 0.82 mnt from 0.91 mnt, as dispatches outpaced inflows.

Company-wise: Adani, Agarwal Coal trim inventories

Company-level data showed parallel stock reductions. Adani Enterprises’ inventories fell 1.5% to 3.21 mnt from 3.25 mnt, indicating continued evacuation across its port network. Agarwal Coal also reduced stocks by 3.5% to 1.05 mnt from 1.08 mnt, suggesting limited fresh arrivals during the week.

Evacuation-led drawdown dominates

The key theme this week was evacuation-led inventory reduction rather than redistribution. With year-end holidays, subdued downstream demand, and cautious restocking behaviour, market participants prioritised clearing existing stocks over building fresh positions. The decline in national inventories reflected this shift, even as isolated ports like Kandla and Vizag saw temporary builds.

Outlook

Portside inventories are expected to remain volatile in the near term. Year-end trading inactivity, uneven vessel arrivals, and cautious buying are likely to keep stocks under pressure, with movements driven more by evacuation patterns than fresh demand until normal activity resumes in January.