India: Portside thermal coal stock levels remain mixed

• National stocks rose, but port-level volatility intensified sharply
• Inventory rotation replaced accumulation amid weak downstream demand

India’s portside thermal coal inventories increased 1.8% w-o-w to 13.31 mnt in the week ended 19 December, compared with 13.07 mnt in the previous week. While the national stock level rose modestly, the underlying movement reflected intense churn, with sharp stock build-ups at select ports offsetting steep drawdowns elsewhere. The week highlighted inventory redistribution rather than net accumulation, driven by uneven arrivals and active evacuation at high-stock locations.

East coast: Karaikal rebounds, Vizag weakens

East coast stock movements remained mixed in the week. Karaikal rebounded sharply to 0.36 mnt in the week from empty inventories in the previous week, marking a full recovery on renewed arrivals after last week’s complete drawdown. In contrast, Vizag recorded a continued decline, with inventories falling 14% to 0.88 mnt from 1.03 mnt, reflecting lower arrivals alongside steady evacuation.

West coast: Magdalla strengthens, Jamnagar corrects

On the west coast, Magdalla recorded a strong build-up, rising 16% to 0.86 mnt from 0.75 mnt, supported by fresh vessel arrivals. Meanwhile, Jamnagar witnessed one of the sharpest drawdowns, with stocks declining 28.8% to 0.27 mnt from 0.38 mnt, as dispatches outpaced inflows during the week.

Company-wise: Adani trims, Agarwal rebuilds

Company-level movements diverged. Adani Enterprises reduced inventories by 7.1% to 3.25 mnt in the week, from 3.50 mnt in the previous week, indicating higher evacuation across its terminals. In contrast, Agarwal Coal increased stocks by 9.3% to 1.08 mnt from 0.99 mnt, supported by fresh arrivals.

Inventory rotation replaces stock accumulation

A notable shift emerged this week — inventory rotation overtook stock build-up as the dominant theme. Several ports showed sharp rebuilds immediately followed by drawdowns elsewhere, indicating coal movement within the port network rather than fresh demand-led accumulation. This pattern aligns with weak end-user demand, compelling traders to prioritise evacuation and rebalancing over fresh stocking.

Outlook

Portside inventories are expected to remain mixed, with continued churn across ports. Uneven arrivals, cautious buying due to weak sponge iron and steel demand, and firm imported coal prices are likely to cap aggressive stock builds. Market participants are expected to closely track auction flows and regional evacuation trends rather than headline inventory levels over the remainder of December.