- Bid-offer gaps narrow, but trading activity remains thin
- Buyers may shift to domestic coal if import offers stay high
South African thermal coal prices at Indian ports declined w-o-w as of 19 March 2026 following the sharp rally since early March. As per BigMint’s assessment, exw-Paradip RB2 (5,500 NAR) fell by INR 400/t to INR 11,800/t, while RB3 (4,800 NAR) dropped by INR 100/t to INR 10,500/t. The correction was driven by buyer resistance to elevated offers, leading to a softening in market sentiment after a prolonged uptrend.
Market participants noted that buying interest remained limited, with most consumers avoiding fresh bookings at higher price levels. The bid-offer gap narrowed slightly following the correction, although overall trade activity remained thin and requirement-based.
Offers remain firm; buying stays limited
South African thermal coal offers remained largely stable, with 5,500 NAR at $92-93/t FOB and 4,800 NAR at $77-78/t FOB. Panamax freights were reported at around $24/t, keeping delivered costs elevated.
FOB prices are expected to remain stable next week; however, freight volatility linked to geopolitical developments and oil price movements may continue to influence landed prices. Indian market participants indicated that if elevated offers persist, buyers may increasingly shift towards domestic coal.
On the east coast, availability remained tight, particularly at Haldia, where stocks were heard to be limited. Offers for 5,500 NAR crossed INR 12,000/t, with last indications near INR 12,400/t, although demand remained subdued.
Portside inventories decline amid limited arrivals
Portside thermal coal inventories across India declined 9.0% w-o-w to 12.15 mnt in the week ended 13 March, down from 13.35 mnt. The sharp correction was attributed to limited fresh cargo arrivals and continued evacuation, keeping availability tight across select grades and ports.
Export recovery offers support
South African non-coking coal exports increased by 26.3% m-o-m to 5.09 million tonnes (mnt) in February 2026 from 4.03 mnt in January. Volumes were also higher by 13.1% y-o-y. The recovery followed January’s 17-month low and was supported by improved dispatches to key destinations.
Domestic coal stable; sponge improves slightly
Domestic non-coking coal prices remained stable w-o-w, with 4,500 GCV at INR 5,100/t and 5,000 GCV at INR 6,250/t exw-Bilaspur, supported by active participation in recent SECL auctions and firm bids for higher grades.
Meanwhile, sponge iron P-DRI DAP Durgapur increased by INR 50/t w-o-w to INR 26,350/t. The market witnessed a slight improvement in trading activity after a sluggish phase, with demand from finished and semi-finished steel segments picking up. However, transactions remained largely need-based, with overall sentiment still cautious.
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