- Coal stocks at thermal plants decline slightly
- Thermal coal stocks at ports edge up
The portside Indonesian thermal coal market remained largely stable on a week-on-week (w-o-w) basis, with no major price fluctuations. This steady trend reflects balanced sentiment in the international market, as buyers remain cautious amid limited spot trading activity and expectations of moderate demand recovery.
Steady portside prices in India
As of 11 April, prices for various grades of Indonesian thermal coal remained unchanged w-o-w at key Indian ports, reflecting continued market stability. The 5000 GAR grade was at INR 7,800/t at Kandla, while the 3400 GAR grade at INR 4,950/t at Navlakhi. Meanwhile, the 4200 GAR grade was steady at INR 6,200/t at Kandla and INR 6,100/t at Vizag.
This sustained price trend indicates an equilibrium in the Indian thermal coal market, supported by balanced portside inventories and subdued but steady demand from the power and industrial sectors. Buyers appear to be maintaining a wait-and-watch approach, contributing to the overall market steadiness.
Thermal coal stocks at ports edge up slightly
Inventories of thermal coal at Indian ports rose marginally by 0.2% w-o-w to 12.31 mnt in week 14 of CY’25. This uptick was driven by increased vessel arrivals, particularly at ports with consistent demand from cement and sponge iron sectors. The gradual accumulation of portside stock reflects cautious procurement strategies, as buyers maintain buffer stocks amid uncertainty over power plant coal usage and monsoon logistics planning.
Coal stocks at power plants decline slightly
Coal inventories at Indian power plants decreased marginally to 57.98 million tonnes (mnt) as of 9 April, down from 58.02 mnt a week earlier. While overall stock levels still cover around 20 days of demand, the decline signals supply-chain inefficiencies or higher consumption in certain regions.
Notably, several plants remain at critical inventory levels – ten domestic coal plants, seven reliant on imports, and four using washery rejects. These facilities may face operational challenges if coal replenishment is delayed, potentially straining the grid during peak summer demand.
Indonesian coal prices show mixed movements
In Indonesia, coal prices experienced minor fluctuations over the past week. High-calorific value (CV), 5800 GAR, coal dropped by $0.39/t to $82.52/t, Conversely, mid-CV 4200 GAR increased by $0.03/t to $49.89/t and low-CV 3400 GAR coal saw a modest increase of $0.05/t, to $33.09/t. These price movements show that mid and lower – quality coal has become relatively more expensive compared to higher grade.
Outlook
The Indonesian thermal coal market is expected to remain stable in the short term, with prices holding steady due to subdued demand and cautious buying. However, in the mid-term, prices may see a slight upward trend driven by rising summer power demand and pre-monsoon stocking by Indian buyers. Tight coal inventories at some power plants and logistical concerns ahead of the monsoon could further support prices. Overall, the market outlook is cautiously neutral to slightly bullish.
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