India: Portside market for Indonesian thermal coal stable w-o-w amid muted trade

• Portside thermal coal inventories rise marginally
• Coal stockpiles record decline at power plants

The Indian portside market for Indonesian thermal coal remained stable on a w-o-w basis, marked by flat sentiment and limited trade. The market showed signs of caution, with minimal material movement and no major deals concluded.

Prices hold firm across key ports

As of 25 April 2025, Indonesian thermal coal prices remained unchanged across major Indian ports, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario. The 5000 GAR grade continued to be quoted at INR 7,800/tonne at Kandla, while the 4200 GAR grade stood at INR 6,200/tonne in Kandla and INR 6,100/tonne in Vizag. The 3400 GAR grade held steady at INR 4,900/tonne at Navlakhi. This consistent pricing trend reflects a market with limited buying or selling pressure, driven largely by cautious sentiment.

Portside inventories show marginal uptick

Thermal coal inventories at Indian ports edged up slightly by 0.3% w-o-w, rising to 12.37 million tonnes (mnt) in Week 16 of CY’25, from 12.33 mnt in the preceding week, according to BigMint data. This marginal increase points to a stable equilibrium between vessel discharge and inland offtake, with only moderate changes observed at specific ports.

Coal stockpiles decline at power plants

In contrast to the steady portside inventories, coal stocks at Indian power plants recorded a decline. As of 16 April, inventories fell to 57.55 mnt from 58.36 mnt in the previous week, enough to support approximately 20 days of consumption.

Despite the current buffer, concerns persist over the critically low stock levels at several power plants. These include 11 facilities dependent on domestic coal, seven reliant on imported coal, and three using washery rejects, highlighting the need for replenishment in the near term.

Global index prices reflect diverging trends

While Indian portside prices remained static, Indonesian thermal coal index prices showed mixed movements over the week. The high-calorific value (CV) 5800 GAR grade fell by $0.76/tonne to $80.83/tonne, and the 4200 GAR grade slipped $0.63/tonne to $48.99/tonne. In contrast, the low-CV 3400 GAR grade rose slightly by $0.58/tonne to $33.73/tonne. The narrowing spread between the higher- and lower-CV grades suggests a shift in demand preferences or emerging supply constraints, particularly in the lower-grade segment.

Outlook

The Indian portside coal market is expected to stay range-bound in the short term, with stable prices, backed by steady inventories and cautious buying. However, falling coal stocks at power plants may drive fresh demand. Globally, firming lower-grade Indonesian coal prices could impact import costs.