- Portside prices remain stable with slight inventory decline
- Market outlook rangebound amid rising freights, stock concerns
The Indian portside market for Indonesian thermal coal maintained stability during the week ending 29 August 2025, with most traded grades recording no major week-on-week variation.
BigMint’s assessments highlighted that the 5000 GAR grade held steady at INR 7,150/t at Kandla and INR 7,050/t at Vizag, while the 4200 GAR grade remained unchanged at INR 5,700/t and INR 5,600/t, respectively. The 3400 GAR grade was also assessed firm at INR 4,450/t at Navlakhi, supported by localised supply constraints.
A market participant remarked that Indonesian coal prices have been largely stable, with potential fluctuations expected only from upcoming monthly bookings.
Inventories show marginal declines
Portside inventories of thermal coal across India fell marginally by 0.6% w-o-w, slipping to 13.78 million tonnes (mnt) in week 34 compared with 13.86 mnt in week 33. The decline was primarily driven by lower arrivals, even as some western and eastern ports reported stock gains.
Meanwhile, coal inventories at power plants decreased to 50.57 mnt as of 28 August 2025, from 51.89 mnt a week earlier. These reserves remain sufficient for around 17 days of power generation, providing comfort at the system level.
However, concerns persist as 21 power plants continued to operate at critical stock levels, spanning domestic, imported, and washery-reject categories, pointing to ongoing challenges in supply chain coordination.
Freight market registers gains
Shipping costs on the Indonesia-India coal route witnessed a sharp increase during the week. Supramax freights from East Kalimantan to Navlakhi rose to $16.95/dmt, marking a notable w-o-w jump of $1.02/dmt.
According to market sources, time-charter rates on this route have remained firm, although overall trading activity in the Indian Ocean basin has been subdued due to limited fresh cargo availability.
International prices edge lower
In contrast to domestic stability, the international market for Indonesian coal registered modest declines. The 5800 GAR grade eased by $0.10/t to $75.4/t, the 4200 GAR grade slipped by $0.68/t to $42.32/t, while the 3400 GAR grade fell by $0.26/t to $30.74/t. These reductions reflect steady Indonesian supplies against a backdrop of subdued buying interest in Asia, exerting mild pressure on seaborne values.
Outlook: Rangebound market with supply risks
The Indian portside coal market is expected to stay stable and rangebound, with soft global prices balancing rising freight costs. Adequate reserves offer comfort, though critical stock levels at some plants point to ongoing logistical challenges.
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