- Subdued demand, high inventories weigh on price movements
- Traders defer bookings until clearer demand signals emerge
The Indian portside market for Indonesian-origin thermal coal remained stable during the week ending 1 November 2025, as the combined effects of a seasonal slowdown and subdued industrial consumption continued to weigh on buying sentiment.
Market participants largely stayed on the sidelines, resulting in limited spot transactions across both east and west coast ports.
Price assessments, market sentiment
Price movements across major Indonesian grades reflected a balanced demand-supply scenario with little w-o-w variation.
According to BigMint’s assessments, the 5000 GAR grade held steady w-o-w at INR 7,100/t at Kandla, while easing by INR 50/t to INR 7,000/t at Vizag. The 4200 GAR grade was assessed at INR 5,800/t at Kandla and INR 5,700/t at Vizag, and the 3400 GAR grade remained unchanged at INR 4,400/t at Navlakhi.
This stability can be attributed to ample portside stock availability amid weak end-user demand. There was a lack of aggressive procurement interest, as traders preferred to defer bookings until clearer post-festive demand signals emerge.
Freight dynamics
Freight markets mirrored the subdued trade sentiment. No new fixtures were heard on the Indonesia-India route during Asian trading hours, as participants refrained from fresh commitments amid weak import demand.
As a result, Supramax coal freights on the route declined by $1.07/dmt w-o-w to $14.43/dmt, marking a one-month low.
The fall in freights underscores reduced vessel utilisation and muted cargo movements, with the market adjusting to lower trading activity during the seasonal lull.
Inventory position
India’s portside thermal coal inventories remained broadly steady in Week 43 (ending 26 October 2025), rising marginally by 1.2% w-o-w to 13.33 million tonnes (mnt) from 13.17 mnt in Week 42.
The incremental increase was supported by selective restocking at key eastern and western ports, even as overall procurement volumes remained low.
The comfortable stock position continues to buffer short-term supply risks, preventing any significant price escalation in the near term despite limited trade activity.
Seaborne market trends
In contrast to the steady portside market, seaborne Indonesian coal prices witnessed minor fluctuations, influenced by regional procurement trends.
The 5800 GAR grade eased slightly by $0.16/t w-o-w to $78.2/t, while the 4200 GAR grade dropped marginally by $0.02/t to $45.33/t. The 3400 GAR grade, however, recorded a modest gain of $0.18/t, reaching $31.89/t.
The mild price movement reflects renewed buying interest from China and Southeast Asia, where utilities have initiated stock replenishment ahead of the winter heating season.
Market outlook
The Indian portside thermal coal market is expected to stay stable and range-bound in the near term, supported by ample inventories and weak demand.
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