India: Portside Indonesian coal prices decline on persistent demand weakness

• Indonesia cuts high-CV coal benchmark price for first half of Jun’25
• Thermal coal inventories at Indian power plants inch up

Indonesian thermal coal prices at Indian ports continued to face downward pressure this week, driven by weak demand, improved domestic coal availability, and a rise in vessel arrivals. The market remained subdued, with end-users maintaining a cautious procurement approach amid ongoing economic uncertainty and fluctuating fuel consumption trends.

Limited buying activity weighs on portside prices

According to BigMint’s market assessment dated 6 June 2025, Indonesian thermal coal prices declined week-on-week across key Indian ports. The 5000 GAR grade fell by INR 50/tonne, assessed at INR 7,700/t at Kandla and INR 7,600/t at Vizag. Similarly, the 4200 GAR grade dropped to INR 6,050/t at Kandla and INR 5,950/t at Vizag. However, the 3400 GAR grade held steady at INR 4,500/t at Navlakhi Port.

Muted buying interest persisted across the portside market as participants limited purchases to immediate needs. The lack of significant transactions underlined the subdued sentiment, with buyers refraining from bulk procurement due to macroeconomic concerns and price volatility.

Thermal coal inventories at power plants inch up

Coal inventories at Indian power plants rose slightly to 61.17 million tonnes (mnt) as of 5 June, up from 60 mnt the previous week. Current stock levels are sufficient to support approximately 20 days of power generation under normal operations.

However, supply challenges remain unevenly distributed, with seven plants reliant on domestic coal, seven on imported coal, and two using washery rejects reporting critically low stock levels highlighting localised supply constraints despite an overall adequate inventory position.

Port stocks rise amid higher vessel arrivals

Thermal coal stockpiles at Indian ports increased by 3% w-o-w, reaching 15.40 mnt in Week 22 of CY’25, up from 15 mnt in the previous week. The build-up in inventories was attributed to increased vessel arrivals at key ports, although end-user offtake remained sluggish particularly from sectors such as sponge iron manufacturing, which continued to exhibit cautious demand.

Indonesian benchmark prices decline on global slackness

Indonesian coal benchmark prices weakened further across major grades this week amid subdued global demand and tighter procurement budgets. The 5800 GAR grade dropped by $0.72/t to $74.80/t, reflecting reduced interest due to tighter import quotas and weak industrial activity. The 4200 GAR grade registered a sharper fall of $2.11/t to $42.46/t, while the 3400 GAR grade edged down by $0.38/t to $31.03/t.

Outlook

The near-term outlook for Indonesian thermal coal in India remains subdued due to sufficient domestic supply. A price rebound is unlikely unless industrial or power sector demand strengthens or domestic supply tightens. Global economic uncertainty and regulatory challenges are expected to keep buyers cautious and focused on short-term needs.