India: PELLEX rises by INR 200/t as producers lift offers; market waits for NMDC’s iron ore price revision

• Offers rise on pre-monsoon restocking demand, tight supply 
• Trade remains muted due to weak downstream markets

PELLEX, BigMint’s bi-weekly domestic pellet (Fe 63%) index for Raipur, increased by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 9,300/t ($98/t) DAP on 3 July 2026 against 30 June.

In a coordinated move, local producers raised pellet offers by INR 200/t yesterday. However, despite the higher offers, trading activity remained subdued as buyers adopted a cautious approach and preferred to wait for greater clarity regarding the market direction from NMDC’s upcoming July iron ore price revision.

Rationale

• PELLEX has been derived using data points, i.e., trades, offers, and bids. To download the detailed methodology, click here.
• One deal was recorded in this publishing window, and thus, this category was not taken for calculation. Thus, the T1 trade category was accorded 0% weightage.
• Twenty (20) firm offers, bids, and indicative prices were heard, and sixteen (16) were taken for price calculation and given the balance 100% weightage.

Price movements and offers

Pellet producers in Raipur raised offers for Fe 62.5/63% (0.5%) grade pellets by INR 200/t ($2/t) to INR 9,100-9,200/t ($96-97/t) exw. Active sales in June and a scheduled maintenance shutdown at a key plant led to the hike. Raipur-based pellet sellers concluded bulk deals (for 325,000 t, as per BigMint’s records) in mid-June amid pre-monsoon demand from steelmakers. However, no fresh bookings were recorded at the revised offers.

Market scenario

Market participants indicated that the recent hike in pellet prices has not translated into improved deal volumes. Most steelmakers and sponge iron manufacturers are delaying fresh purchases, expecting NMDC’s revised iron ore prices to set the direction for the raw material market in the coming weeks.

Adding to the cautious sentiment, the recent decline in sponge iron and billet prices has continued to weigh on the downstream steel market. Lower finished steel realisations have reduced buying interest from sponge iron manufacturers, limiting their willingness to accept higher pellet prices.

A sponge iron producer stated, “Steel margins remain under pressure due to weak billet prices. Until the downstream market stabilises, pellet procurement will remain need-based rather than aggressive.”

A few pellet manufacturers have temporarily kept fresh sales closed as they remain occupied with dispatching material against previously booked orders. Market sources said producers are prioritising pending deliveries before accepting new bookings, resulting in relatively tight spot availability despite weak buying interest.

Another pellet producer stated, “Our immediate focus is clearing earlier commitments. Fresh bookings will resume once pending dispatches are completed.”

Despite the current slowdown, market participants expect buying activity to improve in the coming week as steelmakers begin replenishing inventories for monsoon operations. Seasonal restocking is likely to support the pellet market in July.

Key market drivers

• Sponge iron prices fall w-o-w: Sponge PDRI prices decreased by INR 450/t ($5/t) w-o-w t0 INR 23,550/t ($247/t) exw Raipur on 3 July. However, prices in Raipur dropped by INR 300/t d-o-d. Buying activity remained sluggish throughout the day, with most transactions concluded at the lower end of the prevailing price range.
• Billet prices decrease w-o-w: BigMint’s billet index in Raipur fell by INR 200/t ($2/t) w-o-w to INR 38,550/t ($405/t) exw on 3 July. Additionally, the index decreased by INR 100/t d-o-d. Prices fell as weak buying interest and aggressive bidding continued to pressure the semi-finished steel market. Limited participation from buyers, coupled with sustained competitive offers from neighbouring markets, kept spot prices under pressure throughout the trading session, resulting in only a handful of billet bookings.

Outlook

BigMint expects pellet prices to remain firm in Raipur in the coming week. However, trade activity may remain limited, with the industry closely monitoring NMDC’s upcoming price revision and broader steel market trends before taking fresh positions.