- Seasonal slowdown in China limited aggressive pellet buying
- Domestic and export realization came to equity
BigMint’s India pellet (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al₂O₃) export index rose by $3.5/t w-o-w to $101/t FOB east coast on 8 July 2026, supported by improving export trading activity. While demand from China remained selective amid seasonal weakness in steel consumption, the market turned relatively more active with one deal reported between Monday and Wednesday and three additional pellet cargoes concluded over the past week, indicating buying interest after several weeks of thin trading.
According to market sources, a producer reportedly concluded cargo offered by eastern India pellet maker of regular-grade pellets (Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al2O3) and was heard booked at around $116-118/t CFR India this week.
Chinese pellet inventories at 34 major ports stood at 6.07 mnt lowering slightly by $0.31/t against last week.
Rationale
- One (1) confirmed deal from India’s east coast was recorded in this publishing window for T1 trade, and, therefore, this category was allotted 50% weightage for today’s price calculations. Click here for the detailed methodology.
- Thirteen (13) indicative prices were received, and six (6) were considered for the calculation of the index and given a balance 50% weightage.
Market updates
Trading activity improved during the assessment period as negotiations between buyers and sellers gathered pace. Market participants reported four cargoes concluded over the past week, suggesting liquidity has improved despite the absence of aggressive buying.
An east India-based producer reportedly sold Fe 63%, 3-3.5% Al₂O₃ pellets at $116-118/t CFR China earlier this week. Additional cargoes from eastern and southern India were also heard concluded, while several producers from eastern and central India remained active with fresh offers.
As of last week, Central India-based producer concluded a deal for 115,000 t (Fe 63/64%, 1.5% Al2O3 and SiO2) at $124-125/t CFR India. Another producer concluded a deal for 55,000 t (Fe 63%, 1.5% Al2O3 and SiO2) at $107-108/t FOB India.
An international trader said, “Multiple offers from east India and central India-based producers are active right now. China continues to hold comfortable inventories of lower-grade Australian fines, but mills are buying pellets for better burden optimisation as lump premiums have increased.” Also, the subsequent round of coke price hikes from a prolonged period has caused mills to restructure their blend mix, prioritising the cost and protecting margins, which have thus lent support to India’s pellet export market.
Seller indications were heard at $116-118/t CFR China, while buyers remained around $113-114/t CFR. Although this bid-offer gap continued to limit broader trading, participants noted that negotiations have become increasingly active compared with the previous week.
Another trader said, “Freight rates have increased recently, which is likely to push CFR offers higher. With negotiations continuing, additional deals are likely over the coming week.”
On the domestic front, pellet availability remained comfortable as weaker downstream steel and semi-finished steel prices continued to weigh on local demand. However, stronger export enquiries helped improve overseas sales opportunities for Indian suppliers though realization came alomost under equity with the domestic offer.
Domestic vs export market
The export and domestic realisations was recorded for Fe 63% were at INR 7,450-7,500/t ($78.5/t) gaining around INR 350/t ($3.5/t) this week while domestic realisations (Fe 62.5%) reduced by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 7,450/t ($78/t) exw.
Factors impacting pellet exports
Chinese iron ore fines prices fell w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines Fe 61% index fell by $1/t w-o-w to $98/dmt CFR China on 7 July. Trading remained thin, with transactions largely concentrated in mainstream medium-grade fines. China’s portside market witnessed relatively better buying interest, helping cushion the decline in seaborne prices. However, the improvement was insufficient to offset weak underlying demand.
DCE iron ore futures softened w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2026 contract settled at RMB 737.5/t ($109/t) on 8 July, down by RMB 6/t ($1/t) w-o-w.
Outlook
The Indian pellet export market has turned more constructive in the short term. Active deal flow over the past week, continued negotiations and firmer freight costs are expected to support prices. While Chinese buyers remain price-conscious and the bid-offer gap may persists.
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