India: Odisha iron ore fines index rises amid fiscal year-end slowdown

• Traders await miners’ EC renewals
• Lower-grade fines see few export deals

Iron ore prices in Odisha remained supported this week as trading activity slowed due to the financial year-end. Market participants adopted a wait-and-watch approach as the Environmental Clearance (EC) for major miners expired, leading to subdued transactions. Buyers are now waiting for fresh EC before booking material for April delivery.

BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index increased by INR 100/t ($1/t) w-o-w to INR 5,200/t ($61/t) ex-mines on 29 March. Overall, deals for around 180,000 t of iron ore (fines and lumps) were recorded from Odisha this week.

A market participant said, “The OMC auction provided some relief for buyers but, overall, market movement has been slow due to regulatory uncertainties.”

While mid-to-high grade material remained scarce, trading activity improved for lower-grade fines, driven by active export deals in the east coast region. Major buyers secured material through the Odisha Mining Corporation (OMC) auctions, while some traders focused to clear existing inventories.

A buyer informed, “The current prices seem relatively high, and we expect better availability once new EC limits are set for miners. This could put downward pressure on prices.”

However, some market participants are waiting for the new pricing from miners for the fresh material, which has led to a wait-and-watch stance until the new ECs come in.

Another trader added, “There is uncertainty around pricing, but we anticipate stability in the short term, with possible fluctuations by mid-April.”

Factors affecting iron ore market

• Pellet offers stable w-o-w: Pellet (6-20 mm, Fe 62.5%) prices in Odisha’s Barbil remained stable w-o-w at INR 8,500/t ($99/t) loaded to wagon. Pellet (Fe 62.5%, 6-20 mm) prices in Durgapur were also range-bound w-o-w at INR 9,500/t ($110/t) exw on 27 March.
• Sponge iron prices largely stable w-o-w: According to BigMint’s assessment, sponge iron C-DRI (FeM 80%) prices in Rourkela down by INR 150/t ($2/t) w-o-w at INR 27,350/t ($311/t) on 29 March. Meanwhile, steel billet (100*100 mm) offers in Rourkela were stable w-o-w at INR 40,100/t ($459/t) today.
• Active export deals in Indian Sea: BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $2/t w-o-w to $64/t FOB east coast, India, on 27 March. Export trades picked up this week, with three deals of around 160,000 t of fines (Fe57%) concluded at $73-76/t CFR China recently. Overall, around 600,000 t of fines export deals were concluded in the Indian Ocean for Fe 50-57 %.

Rationale

• T1 – Two (2) deals of Fe62% fines were recorded in the publishing window, and two (2) were considered for price computation and given a 50% weightage for index calculation.
• T2 – BigMint received twenty-three (23) offers and indicative prices under the T2 category (offers, indicative, and bids) in this publishing window. Eighteen (18) were taken into consideration and given a 50% weightage. To check BigMint’s iron ore assessment, pricing methodology, and specification document, click here.

Outlook

According to BigMint’s analysis, market clarity around pricing is expected next week as fresh EC will be applicable from April next month. Prices are projected to remain stable in the near term, though potential price movements could emerge in April as supply dynamics evolve.