- LME aluminium prices fall by 2% from 11 August
- Exchange inventories decline by 3.2% over the same period
National Aluminium Company Ltd. (NALCO) has reduced its IE10 aluminium ingot price by INR 12,900/t, or 3.4%, to INR 362,300/t. The revised price is effective from 15 August 2026, compared with INR 375,200/t on 12 August. The latest price reduction follows a hike of INR 11,900/t announced on 12 August.
Global aluminium market remains supportive
The LME three-month aluminium contract stood at $3,221/t on 19 August, down 1.4% d-o-d from $3,267/t on 18 August. However, prices remained 3.3% higher than $3,118/t at the end of July. This indicates a firmer global pricing environment compared with the previous month.
Exchange stocks declined 3.7% d-o-d to 246,925 t on 19 August. The latest decline brought inventories below the 256,400 t recorded on 11 August, indicating a 3.7% drawdown over the period.
Recent supply concerns have supported aluminium prices. Norsk Hydro has cut alumina production at its Alunorte refinery in Brazil to around 50% of capacity. The move was due to natural-gas supply disruptions, raising concerns over alumina availability.
However, rising Chinese exports of aluminium alloys and semi-finished products could limit further price gains. Weak domestic demand is driving these exports.
These mixed supply signals remain important for NALCO. Tighter global availability supports prices, while higher Chinese exports could cap further gains.
Price hike comes despite subdued domestic demand
Domestic demand for aluminium has remained subdued so far in August. The ongoing monsoon season continues to weigh on consumption across key end-user sectors. Most buyers have restricted purchases to immediate requirements. Interest in inventory building remains limited despite higher domestic aluminium prices.
Domestic buyers are therefore likely to remain cautious. The recent LME correction and slight recovery in exchange inventories indicate some near-term uncertainty. However, the overall decline in LME stocks since 11 August continues to support physical market sentiment.
Outlook turns mixed amid easing supply concerns
NALCO’s latest price increase was supported by firm aluminium prices and tight LME inventories. However, the market has become less bullish after Norsk Hydro increased Alunorte production. Rising Chinese exports have also eased some concerns over global supply.
Near-term domestic aluminium prices are therefore likely to remain volatile. Further declines in LME inventories could provide support. Meanwhile, improving overseas supply and higher Chinese exports may limit further gains.
Domestic buyers are expected to remain cautious and continue purchasing mainly for immediate requirements.
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