India: Met coke market stays resilient amid monsoon-induced steel slowdown

• Met coke prices remain stable on firm supply fundamentals and ADD support
• Weak steel demand caps price upside despite stable market fundamentals

India’s domestic metallurgical coke market remained broadly stable in the week ended August 6, as subdued steel demand, ample availability, and limited spot transactions kept both buyers and sellers cautious.

BF-grade coke prices in eastern India increased marginally by INR 150/t to INR 35,300/t ex-Jajpur, supported by firm production costs and restricted supply, while prices in western India remained unchanged at INR 33,500/t ex-Gandhidham. Foundry-grade coke also held firm at around INR 36,400/t ex-Rajkot, backed by relatively steady demand from the casting industry.

A market participant noted that “met coke prices are currently stable. However, following the implementation of the anti-dumping duty (ADD), which presently covers imports from only six countries, buyers are expected to explore alternative sourcing destinations that are outside the scope of the duty.”

Another participant further highlighted that “demand for coke fines and anthracite has increased, primarily due to reduced industrial activity across northern India during the monsoon season. As a result, tighter material availability has led to a supply shortage, providing support to prices in these segments.”

Imported coke stays firm despite softer coking coal market

BigMint’s assessment for Indonesian-origin BF-grade metallurgical coke (65/63 CSR) remained unchanged at $308/t CFR India, as limited spot availability and stable export offers offset the decline in upstream raw material prices.

Meanwhile, Australian premium hard coking coal (PHCC) prices fell by $5/t week-on-week to $214/t FOB Australia, reflecting weak seaborne demand, cautious steel mill procurement, and softer market sentiment in China.

China market weakens as steel mills announce third coke price cut

China’s coke markets remained largely stable w-o-w, although sentiment weakened after major steel mills initiated a third round of coke price reductions of RMB 50-55/t ($ 7-8/t). Despite tight coking coal supply caused by stringent mine safety inspections and temporary production suspensions, weak steel profitability, lower pig iron output, and maintenance-related production cuts curtailed procurement activity.

Loss-making coke producers reduced output, while higher inventories at coke plants, weaker port prices, and softer freight rates highlighted sluggish downstream demand, keeping the near-term market under pressure.

Moreover, India’s pig iron market witnessed selective buying, with Durgapur prices rising by around INR 100/t week-on-week to INR 38,500/t ex-works, supported by raw material constraints and firm export realizations.

Outlook

India’s met coke market is expected to remain largely stable in the near term, supported by firm production costs, restricted spot availability, and the anti-dumping duty on select imports. However, weak steel demand during the monsoon, cautious buying by steelmakers, and softer Chinese coke sentiment are likely to cap any significant price gains. Market activity is expected to improve with a post-monsoon recovery in steel production and demand.