Arrival of thermal coal-laden vessels from Indonesia is slated to witness a 48% m-o-m decline to 1.4 million tonnes (mnt) over 19 April-1 May 2022, CoalMint’s vessel line-up data reveals. The decline has come amid miners holding back supply on account of tight cargo availability and weakened coal output in the country due to heavy rainfall.
The decline in shipments from Indonesia comes after there were record imports seen in March, wherein shipments were the highest, rising by 166% m-o-m to 10.9 mnt.
Adani Enterprise is set to bring 0.6 mnt of Indonesian coal with the majority set to arrive at Dhamra, Kandla, and Mundra ports by 1 May, 2022, followed by Adani Power with 0.2 mnt, at Mundra Port.
Tata Power and Semb Corp Gayathri Power are two other major importers, bringing in 0.15 mnt and 0.14 mnt, respectively.
Shipments from other key destinations
*Quantity in mnt
As per the table, vessel arrival from South Africa in the period under review is also seen lower by 81% m-o-m to 0.14 mn t, wherein only ONGC Manglore Petrochemicals is set to bring the entire quantity.
Elevated South African prices, which have been trading above $250/t over the last few weeks, have compelled Indian sponge iron manufacturers to move to the sidelines, forcing traders to curtail new bookings.
South African coal stocks at Indian ports currently remain limited with portside prices having risen to as high as INR 22,000/t, as per CoalMint’s assessment.
Shipments from Australia are also seen lower, falling by 64% m-o-m to 0.19 mnt amid disrupted shipments from Huntur Valley following severe storms last month.
Reliance Industries and Ultratech Cement are set to bring in 0.7 mnt of each, followed by Uttam Galva with 0.3 mnt of Australian coal.
Shipments from the US seen rising
Thermal coal shipments from the US, however, are likely to rise due to demand from cement manufacturers in the country ahead of the monsoon season.
A total of 0.23 mn t of US thermal coal is set to arrive for Ultratech Cement, followed by a capesize vessel of 0.13 mnt for Adani Enterprise. Shree Cement is seen getting 0.9 mn t at Gangavaram Port.
Short-term outlook
Thermal coal vessel arrival from major destinations in the upcoming week may remain range-bound amid the recent surge in coal prices following renewed sanctions on Russia.
However, the tight domestic supply scenario in the non-power sector may keep import shipments supported.
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