The vessel-line up data (as on 27-Jul’20) maintained with CoalMint reveals that a total quantity of 2.93 mn t of thermal coal is coming into India in the next 12-15 days.
—The highest quantity of 0.55 mn t is set to arrive at Krishnapatnam port, with about 50% of the vessels coming from South Africa. The combined quantity of 0.33 mn t of two entities, JSW Steel and JSW Energy is expected to arrive at Krishnapatnam port in the next fortnight.
—-Mundra port is the next biggest expected receiver of thermal coal (0.41 mn t) with Adani Power being the buyer at 0.24 mn t from Indonesia.
—The Ennore port in Chennai is expected to be the third biggest receiver (0.26 mn t) of thermal coal vessels coming to Indian shores by the 12th of August.
Country-wise: Out of the total quantity of 2.93 mn t imports, highest quantity is coming from Indonesia (1.46 mn t) followed by South Africa (0.88 mn t).
Consignee-wise imports: Adani Enterprise tops the list with 0.57 mn t of thermal coal expected to arrive at Indian ports (most of it at Gangavaram and Mundra ports). This is followed by Adani Power with its 0.24 mn t of thermal coal coming to Mundra port.
What happened last month?
—Around same time last month, about 5.76 mn t of thermal coal was expected to arrive at Indian ports between 23 June – 13 July.
—Mundra topped the list with highest quantity of 0.64 mn t received at the port followed by Krishnapatnam at 0.53 mn t.
—Party-wise – Agarwal Coal topped the list with a total quantity 0.43 mn t thermal coal imports followed by TANGEDCO at 0.37 mn t.
Outlook: CoalMint Analysis
CoalMint leaned from market participants that the imported thermal coal demand in India continues to remain sluggish. In case of Indonesian coal (which is majorly consumed by the power sector) there is increased availability of domestic coal which is acting as a deterrent to imports.
Whereas, the sponge and cement sector coal buyers are opting for stock available at the ports and are avoiding import bookings for any large quantities amid lockdown-induced uncertain market situation and severe liquidity issues. Subsequently, any significant surge in import bookings in the near-term is quite unlikely.
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