India: Karnataka iron ore prices under pressure amid declining export prices

  • Falling export index weigh on domestic prices
  • Material availability remains a constraint
  • Trades remain subdued

Domestic low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) prices remained unchanged this week in Karnataka’s Bellary. BigMint’s weekly index for low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) stood at INR 3,500/t ($42/t) ex-mines Bellary, stable, w-o-w. However, domestic prices are under pressure amid bearish market sentiments prevailing in the export market.

Some offers for Fe 57% fines were also heard at higher levels of INR 4,000-4,200/t, excluding taxes as miners were not ready to sell at lower offers, taking advantage of their exhausting EC limits.

However, no trades were reported at the above-mentioned levels as buyers have kept themselves away from closing any deal.

“No offers, only indicative prices are prevailing in the market. Also, bearish sentiments in the export market and year-end have pressurised domestic prices,” mentioned a Bellary-based miner.

Also, subdued trades amid non-availability of material owing to some miners’ ECs getting exhausted towards the fiscal year 2024 (FY’24)-end weighed on Karnataka’s low-grade iron ore market.

“We tried to procure low-grade iron ore (Fe 57%) but no one having the material to offer,” a buyer told BigMint.

Meanwhile, NMDC Karnataka had an iron ore auction from Kumaraswamy mines on 12 March, 2024. 48,000 t of fines (Fe 57%) got booked at base price of INR 2,834-5,704/t ($34-69/t) against the base price of INR 2,834-4,484/t ($34-54/t) while 29,000 t of lumps (10-40 mm, Fe 60.36-63.54%) got booked at INR 4,072-6,354/t ($49-77/t) against the base price of INR 4,072-4,745/t ($49-57/t). Notably, bid prices for lumps and fines were higher by INR 1,730/t and 1,220/t, respectively. Prices are on ex-mines basis and include royalty, DMF and NMET.

On the other hand, BigMint’s weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index fell by $12/t w-o-w to $62/t FOB east coast on 14 March, 2024. Iron ore fines prices in the seaborne market saw a sharp drop this week due to the poor performance of global iron ore spot and futures prices. Buyers inquired about the material, but their bids remained around $10/t lower than levels deemed viable by the sellers looking to sell the material.

Rationale:

  • No trade was recorded in this publishing window and was accorded with 0% weightage.
  • Ten (10) offers and indicative prices were reported, out of which eight (8) were considered as T2 trades receiving 100% weightage.

Karnataka iron ore sales scenario (8-14 Mar’24)

Outlook

Domestic low-grade iron ore prices and trade in Karnataka are expected to remain under pressure due to exhausting EC limits towards fiscal year-end and bearish export market sentiment.