- Arrivals remain below last year’s pace, supporting price resilience
- Weak exports cap upside; INR 23,200 remains key breakout trigger
India’s jeera market continues to exhibit firm underlying strength, with prices rising even as arrivals increase across key Gujarat mandis, indicating that demand is absorbing supply without allowing any meaningful correction. Arrivals on 19 March were reported at about 47,000-48,000 bags, significantly lower than the 90,000+ bags seen during the same period last year, suggesting that supply flow remains tight despite ongoing harvest activity. Unjha recorded arrivals of around 32,000-34,000 bags, while Gondal at about 4,000 bags, Botad near 1,700 bags, and North Gujarat around 3,000 bags saw steady inflows. Prices moved higher by INR 200-300, with spot levels at INR 21,200-22,200 per quintal, reflecting active buying and steady absorption of arrivals.
The supply outlook remains supportive. India’s cumin production is estimated at around 90-92 lakh bags, lower than approximately 1.10 crore bags last year, due to reduced sowing and yield concerns in Gujarat. At the same time, arrivals have not increased in line with harvest expectations, suggesting controlled selling by farmers and some inventory holding in anticipation of better prices.
On the demand side, export momentum has weakened. January 2026 shipments declined to around 10,206 tonnes compared with 18,203 tonnes in January 2025. This sharp year-on-year decline indicates that current market strength is largely driven by domestic demand, while subdued export activity is limiting sharper upside.
In futures, the market appears to be in an accumulation phase. NCDEX jeera futures are trading in the INR 22,100-22,300 per quintal range, with prices forming higher lows, indicating buying interest on declines. Open interest trends point to fresh long build-up rather than short covering, supporting a constructive outlook.
Immediate support is seen at INR 22,050-21,700, with a stronger base near INR 21,400. On the upside, INR 22,700 remains the first resistance, while a sustained move above INR 23,000-23,200 is required to confirm further upside.
Overall, rising arrivals are not translating into price pressure, pointing to tight effective supply and consistent demand absorption. In the near term, prices are likely to remain within the INR 21,700-23,200 range, with downside limited by lower production and controlled arrivals. The preferred strategy remains to buy on dips rather than chase rallies. A sustained move above INR 23,200 will be the key trigger for further upside, while a break below INR 21,700 could lead to short-term weakness.
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