India: Jeera prices remain stable as strong arrivals offset tight supply fundamentals

• Rajasthan, Gujarat arrivals keep supply flow steady despite lower production
• Weak export demand continues to limit trader participation, price upside

India’s cumin market continues to trade in a narrow range, with tight supply neutralised by strong arrivals and weak demand. On 02 April 2026, NCDEX jeera April futures were INR 22,165/quintal (up slightly by INR 100/quintal), while Unjha spot prices held steady near INR 23,100/quintal, indicating a lack of clear directional momentum.

From a supply standpoint, the market remains structurally supportive. Production is estimated to be lower by around 5% y-o-y, mainly due to reduced acreage in Gujarat and weather stress in late-sown crops. Carryforward stocks are also limited at around 16 lakh bags, which is preventing any sharp downside in prices.

However, arrival pressure across key mandis is currently the dominant factor for traders. In Gujarat, Unjha recorded 30,000-32,000 bags of fresh arrivals and 44,000-45,000 bags in total trade, while Rajasthan arrivals added further weight with around 35,300 bags, led by Phalodi (8,000-10,000 bags), Medta (7,000-8,000 bags), and Nagaur (4,000-5,000 bags). Combined arrivals are thus keeping the physical market well-supplied in the short term, reducing urgency for buyers.

On the demand side, export weakness continues to be the key drag. Buyers from China and other destinations remain largely inactive, while exporters are facing slow inquiry flows and cautious buying patterns. This has led to a hand-to-mouth strategy among traders and stockists, with limited appetite for building positions despite tighter overall supply.

Futures market cues also reflect this hesitation. Open interest declined by 3.24% to 5,823 lots, indicating short covering rather than fresh bullish positions, suggesting that the recent price uptick lacks strong fundamental backing.

From a trader’s perspective, the market is currently in a wait-and-watch phase, where both buyers and sellers are avoiding aggressive bets. In the near term, jeera is expected to remain range-bound between INR 21,800-22,000/quintal support and INR 22,500-23,000/quintal resistance.

A decisive move will depend on two key triggers: revival in export demand and any early tapering of arrivals. Until then, the market is likely to trade sideways, with tight supply providing support but demand continuing to cap upside.