India: Jeera prices edge up on sowing delays, but sluggish exports cap upside

• Fields not fully prepared in Gujarat due to uneven moisture conditions
• Jeera exports fall 10% y-o-y in Apr-Nov’25 amid buyers’ price sensitivity

Jeera prices settled higher by 1.68% w-o-w at INR 23,870/quintal on the NCDEX on 2 February 2026, supported by weather-related disruptions and delayed sowing that continue to keep market sentiment firm. Sowing progress in Gujarat, the key producing state, remains among the slowest in recent years as fields are not fully prepared due to uneven moisture conditions. Total cumin acreage was at 3.98 lakh hectares, down sharply by 16.31% y-o-y, raising concerns over fresh-crop availability.

Technically, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 1.71% to 5,352 alongside a price rise of INR 395/quintal. Support was seen at INR 23,560/quintal, with further downside at INR 23,260/quintal, while resistance was placed at INR 24,050/quintal, and a break above could open the way towards INR 24,240/quintal.

Spot market fundamentals remained supportive, with arrivals at Unjha staying very low, largely due to farmers holding back stocks amid sowing uncertainty and expectations of better prices. Good-quality cumin continued to command premium prices, lending near-term support to futures. However, traders noted that retail demand has largely tapered off, limiting aggressive buying at higher levels.

Despite tighter supply driving price gains, upside momentum remained capped due to comfortable existing supplies and subdued export demand. Buying interest from Gulf countries and China showed marginal improvement, but demand remained highly price-sensitive, with most current export commitments being met from available stocks. Continued inactivity from key foreign buyers has restricted fresh export flows. Jeera exports during April-November 2025 declined 10.3% y-o-y, despite a y-o-y increase in November shipments.

On the supply front, farmers are estimated to be holding around 20 lakh bags, with only 3-4 lakh bags likely to be traded by season-end, implying carry-forward stocks of nearly 16 lakh bags. Production for the current season is estimated lower at 90-92 lakh bags, compared with 1.10 crore bags last year, reflecting reduced sowing. Globally, output is also seen as being lower in China, Syria, Turkiye, and Afghanistan, though this has not yet translated into stronger overseas demand.

From a policy perspective, the GST Council’s decision to reduce GST to 5% is expected to support FMCG consumption and processed spice exports over time, though the immediate impact on jeera trade remains limited.

Overall, jeera prices are expected to remain largely stable with a firm bias, supported by sowing delays but capped by stock overhang and weak export demand.