- Deals for around 250,000 t concluded in Indian Ocean
- China shows increased preference for low-grade fines
India’s iron ore fines prices in the seaborne market saw a modest improvement this week, buoyed by fresh trading activity in the Indian Ocean and a surge in demand for lower-grade fines. Market participants noted that Chinese mills showed active restocking interest for Indian material, particularly along the eastern coast, which helped conclude deals that had been under negotiation last week.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $1/t w-o-w to $60/t FOB east coast on 12 June. The increase in prices was boosted by decent buying interest from market participants.
Deals for around 165,000 t of Fe 56-57% fines were concluded at $70-72/t CFR China in this publishing window, while a deal for 80,000 t of Fe 54% fines was concluded on the eastern coast.
Market commentary
An export trader informed BigMint, “There has been a consistent inflow of inquiries for Fe 57% fines, especially from Chinese buyers. We have seen some deals materialise this week, and more are currently under negotiation.”
The increased buying appetite for low-grade fines has pushed prices slightly northward. However, exporters noted that some cargo holders were cautious, choosing to hold back material in hopes of achieving higher prices.
An Odisha-based exporter stated, “We are targeting a lift of $2-3/t, and there is optimism that it might be achieved if the current buying interest sustains.”
Despite increasing demand for exports, domestic buying in eastern India slowed down. Exporters selectively sourced material in search of more competitive prices. The discount for Fe 57% fines remained stable at approximately 18-19%, while premium-grade ores from miners continued to receive higher bids.
The export trader added, “Trading activity should remain moderate, but we expect some ongoing negotiations to conclude soon. With more inquiries in the pipeline, market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.”
Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China remained stable w-o-w at $96/t CFR on 11 June. The prices were influenced by improved trade relations and restocking needs. The market gained relief from tariff concerns on 11 June, when the US and China agreed to a trade truce. This development sparked optimism in the futures market, positively impacting the physical market as well.
DCE iron ore futures stable w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract inched up by RMB 3/t ($0.5/t) w-o-w to RMB 704/t ($98/t) on 12 June. Meanwhile, prices remained under pressure on a d-o-d basis.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window, and both were considered for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received seventeen (17) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports increased by 1.4 mnt (million tonnes) w-o-w to 133.4 mnt on 12 June, as per data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore export prices will remain range-bound, fluctuating by $1-2/t in the near term. Deals that are under negotiation are expected to be concluded in the next week.
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