- Over 500,000 t of export deals heard in one week
- Positive economic sentiments supporting fines prices
The Indian iron ore fines export market witnessed a notable uptick this week as prices surged in response to improving global sentiments. This price rally comes on the back of positive macroeconomic signals from China, which lifted the global fines market and supported higher trading activity in the Indian seaborne segment.
Recent price hikes saw a few active deals, with notable buying interest in the seaborne market for Indian fines.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched up by $0.5/t w-o-w to $63/t FOB east coast on 10 July. Around 350,000 t Fe57% fines were sold at $72-74/t CFR China in the last week. Furthermore, around 200,000 t of lower-grade (Fe54-55%) fines deals were recorded.
Market scenario
Market participants confirmed that active trades were concluded at elevated price levels. A trader mentioned, “We have seen sharp gains today, which have clearly boosted sentiment across the board. With buyers displaying renewed interest, sellers are currently awaiting final confirmations about several ongoing negotiations.”
In China, steel mills have shown a strong preference for lower-grade fines due to the widened spread between mid- and high-grade ore. This demand shift has opened a favourable window for Indian exporters of sub-Fe57% material. Prominent Indian miners were seen concluding deals for lower-grade fines below Fe55% this week.
However, on the domestic front, heavy monsoon rainfall and temporary production halts have slowed dispatches to ports. Exporters noted muted procurement from within the country as logistics remain disrupted.
An exporter from Odisha informed, “Rainfall in the mining belts has definitely impacted the movement to ports. Buyers are cautious until dispatch volumes normalise.”
Discount levels remained largely unchanged from last week, around 16-17% for Fe 57% fines and 22-24% for Fe 54-55%.
Miners have reported that demand for low-grade fines has been relatively strong in recent days, with prices rising sharply today. A miner added, “Currently, we are only selling in the domestic market, but if support prices increase in the future, we will consider switching our low-grade deals to the export market.”
Looking ahead, market participants expect the upward momentum to continue, driven by hopes of further stimulus from the Chinese government aimed at reviving its steel-intensive sectors.
Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China remained stable w-o-w at $95/t CFR on 9 July. The stability was supported by active trading and better liquidity and reflected an increase in seaborne deals. Buyer interest was steady, with strong liquidity indicating firm near-term demand. Meanwhile, thinning margins for medium-grade fines led traders to clear cargos swiftly.
DCE iron ore futures climb w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract increased by RMB 30/t ($4/t) w-o-w to RMB 763.5/t ($106/t) on 10 July. Meanwhile, prices saw an increase of RMB 14/t ($2/t) on a d-o-d basis.
Rationale
- Two(2) deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and taken for price calculation. Few deals were already considered in last price updation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received Twenty (20) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fourteen (14) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports dropped by 1.5 mnt w-o-w to 131.9 mnt on 10 July, as per data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, Indian fines export prices are expected to remain supportive in the next couple of weeks, with some more deals likely to be concluded.
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