- Monsoon-driven material shortages slow down trade
- Suppliers ask for 16-17% discount, buyers quote 18-19%
India’s iron ore fines export prices firmed up this week, supported by an uptick in global market sentiment and stronger Chinese demand. Market participants highlighted that international iron ore prices saw a boost, as Chinese mills stepped up procurement, offering a positive backdrop for Indian exporters.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index hiked by $1.5/tonne (t) w-o-w to $65.5/t FOB east coast on 14 August. A 60,000 t fines export (Fe57%) was recorded at $77/t CFR China in this publishing window.
Around 150,000 t of lower-grade fines (Fe 54-56%) were booked last week from the east coast. Deals for Fe 57% fines cargoes were under negotiation, and exporters awaited better prices.
Market scenario
Although prices edged up, actual trade activity from India remained limited. Exporters cited material shortages caused by heavy monsoon rains, which have disrupted mining and transportation in key producing regions. An exporter informed BigMint, “Demand is decent in the overseas market, but we are struggling to procure cargo for shipment.”
Several miners already sold their available cargo in the past few days for deliveries scheduled over the next month, leaving them with no material for fresh export offers. A miner noted, “We are booked for the next four weeks. Right now, our focus is on fulfilling domestic commitments, where prices remain attractive.”
The domestic iron ore market continued to trade at strong levels due to a supply scarcity, making exporters less willing to match international bids. According to a coastal trader, “We are getting active inquiries from seaborne buyers, but our offers do not align with current export levels, given high domestic prices.”
Some suppliers mentioned that buyers are offering 18-19% discounts for Fe 57% fines cargo, while Indian suppliers are quoting closer to a 16-17% discount, creating a gap that is stalling negotiations.
Looking ahead, some reports indicate there may be price volatility as China prepares to cut steel production in the Tangshan region ahead of a scheduled military parade. Multiple steel producers in Tangshan have been instructed to temporarily halt operations. This shutdown is focused on one of China’s largest steel production areas and aims to improve air quality in preparation for a military parade on 3 September, which will take place in nearby Bejing.
Chinese spot prices rise w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China increased by $2/t w-o-w to $103/t CFR on 13 August. The uptrend was fuelled by active trading due to the 90-day US-China tariff extension. Firmer steel prices also lifted iron ore tags. Meanwhile, port-stock prices also climbed up with coking coal’s rally, though high rates kept liquidity thin as mills bought only when needed.
DCE iron ore futures down d-o-d: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 775/t ($108/t) on 14 August, showing a downtrend of RMB 17/t ($2.5/t) d-o-d.
Rationale
- One deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window, and hence, this category was taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-one (21) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventory at Chinese ports rose by 0.95 mnt w-o-w to 131.05 mnt on 14 August, as per SteelHome data.
Outlook
According to BigMint’s analysis, Indian iron ore exporters face a paradox of strong seaborne demand but constrained availability, resulting in both high prices and increased uncertainty.
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