- Lower demand for the Indian fines cargo in sea market
- Discount continue to remain widen side for low grade export
India’s iron ore export prices witnessed a modest increase of around $2-3/t this week on 8 January, tracking the slight rebound in global iron ore prices. The uptick comes despite muted seaborne demand, particularly from China, where high portside inventories continue to cap buying interest.
Prices, deals
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export prices increased by $3/tonne (t) w-o-w to $69/t FOB east coast on Thursday. Meanwhile, the index stood at $79/t CFR China.
The demand remained weakened this week, but some exporters managed to conclude deal from buyers. BigMint recorded around 160,000 t of iron ore fines export deals from the eastern and southern coast of India.
The pressure on prices was further reflected in the widening discounts for low-grade material. According to market sources, the export discount for Fe 57% fines widened to around 22-23%, while Fe 54-55% material saw discounts increase to nearly 30% against the global fines index.
Market scenario
Market participants noted that while prices have improved marginally, overall price clarity remains elusive. Discounts for Indian iron ore fines have largely remained unchanged from last week’s levels, reflecting the cautious sentiment prevailing in the seaborne market.
A market participant said, “The price movement is positive, but the market is still struggling to find a clear direction. Discounts have not narrowed meaningfully yet.”
Demand in the seaborne market remained subdued amid elevated port stocks in China. Chinese mills are largely relying on existing inventories, limiting fresh spot purchases. Another source mentioned, “Buyers are not aggressive at this stage. Most mills are comfortable with port-based material, which is more cost-effective.”
However, global iron ore prices saw a slight upward movement following certain policy adjustments by the People’s Bank of China, which lent some support to sentiment. Market participants believe these policy signals have helped stabilise prices, even though physical demand has yet to show a strong recovery.
Indian exporters, meanwhile, have adopted a wait-and-watch approach and are not rushing to liquidate cargoes. Sources indicated that exporters are holding back sales in anticipation of potentially better pricing in the near term. An exporter mentioned, “Sellers are cautious. With global prices showing some support, exporters prefer to wait rather than sell at current discounts.”
The demand landscape also remains uneven across cargo types. Market participants highlighted that single-mine cargoes are seeing relatively better interest, while trader-held cargoes are facing resistance on pricing. “Single-mine cargoes are still attracting bids, but trader cargoes are struggling to achieve workable prices,” another exporter noted.
The participants expect the market to stabilize next week as discount levels for Indian fines become clearer, especially ahead of upcoming Chinese holidays.
Chinese spot prices firm w-o-w: The benchmark iron ore fines index (Fe 61%) recorded at $109/t CFR China, rose $3/t w-o-w on 7 January. The increase was driven by a positive Chinese macro outlook, strong steel demand, and firm restocking ahead of the Lunar New Year. Higher blast furnace utilisation, tighter mill inventories, and supportive coking coal futures further boosted the market, as market noted strong procurements in recent weeks.
DCE iron ore futures rise w-o-w: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the May 2026 contract closed at RMB 813/t ($116/t) on 8 January 2026, rising by RMB 23.5/t ($3/t) w-o-w.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports stood at 153.86 mnt on 8 January 2026, increasing by 3.31 mnt w-o-w, as per data published by SteelHome. With this, port inventories reached an over two-year high, last seen in April 2022.
Rationale
- One (1) deal for Fe 57% was recorded during this publishing window; taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty (20) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and fifteen (15) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Outlook
Iron ore export prices are expected to remain volatile in the near term, driven by global cues and evolving buying sentiment in China.
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