- Chinese spot prices, DCE futures rise $3-5/t w-o-w
- Easing US-China trade tensions spark optimism
India’s iron ore fines export market witnessed a notable upswing this week, driven by a rise in global seaborne prices and improved demand from Chinese mills. The recent easing of US-China trade tensions fuelled optimism among exporters and buyers alike.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index increased by $3/tonne (t) w-o-w to $62/t FOB east coast, India, on 15 May. Trade activity in the Indian Ocean remained moderate, and inquiries increased with the northward march of prices.
Exporters dealing in Fe 57% grade fines reportedly offered discounts of 20-22% compared to the global index. Exporters pointed to an overall positive trend, with deals for nearly 350,000 t concluded during the recent price rally.
Some exporters with ready cargoes swiftly capitalised on the upward momentum. A market player observed, “We were well positioned with our cargo already at the port, which helped us close deals quickly when the price improved.”
However, not all market players moved at the same pace. Some exporters chose to wait, expecting further price appreciation to recover their earlier high procurement costs. A market participant noted, “We are holding off for slightly better prices. Our cargo was purchased at higher prices in the domestic market, and the current levels are yet to offer a profitable margin.”
Some exporters also pointed to a limited availability of ready-to-load cargo, which delayed some transactions despite favourable pricing.
A miner from Odisha said, “Availability is a concern at the moment. Logistics and internal clearances are affecting the pace of shipments.”
Some sources informed that the Indian seaborne market could see further activity if global prices maintain their upward trajectory. With sustained Chinese demand and a positive global sentiment, Indian exporters remain cautiously optimistic about near-term trading opportunities.
Chinese spot prices up w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $3/t w-o-w to $103/t CFR on 14 May. The market gained momentum as downstream steel fundamentals improved, but sluggish trading was observed in the seaborne segment. Favourable macroeconomic conditions eased earlier pressures, and positive tariff news boosted market expectations and downstream sentiment, creating optimism for iron ore prices.
DCE iron ore futures rise: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the September 2025 contract increased by RMB 36/t ($5/t) w-o-w to RMB 729.5/t ($101/t) on 15 May.
Rationale
- Two (2) deals for Fe 57% were noted during this publishing window, and one (1) was considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received twenty-one (21) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and nineteen (19) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports inched up by 0.35 mnt w-o-w to 137 mnt on 15 May, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore export prices are likely to get support in the near term, with the expectation of improved trading activity, as some deals are under negotiation.
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