India: Iron ore export prices rise $3/t w-o-w after China holiday; market waiting for fresh deals

• Discount narrows to 14-16% for Fe 57% fines
• Exporters waiting for price clarity in export market

Indian iron ore export prices remained firm this week following the reopening of the Chinese market after the weeklong National Day holidays (1-8 October). The firmness in prices was primarily due to a reduction in discount levels for low-grade fines, which pushed overall prices slightly higher.

Prices, deals

BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index rose by $3/tonne (t) w-o-w to $69/t FOB east coast on 9 October.

BigMint recorded export deals for nearly 120,000 t of fines during the recent trading sessions. Cargoes for Fe 57% fines had been lined up before the market closing. Current discount levels for low-grade fines are hovering around 14-16% on the global fines index, compared to wider discounts seen in previous weeks.

Sources further indicated that a few miners have managed to secure deals at around $85/t CFR China, particularly for single mine cargoes that are attracting a slight premium due to limited supply. A miner said, “Single mine cargoes are getting better attention as buyers prefer consistent quality.”

Market scenario

Market participants reported that trading activity was largely muted during the Chinese holidays as buyers stayed away from the market. However, with Chinese steel mills resuming operations today, a marginal improvement in market sentiment was observed.

A global trader informed, “The seaborne export market has opened slightly higher today, but inquiries for Indian fines remain limited.”

Another market participant said, “The narrowing discount is helping prices stay supported, though actual trade volumes are still low.”

Exporters expect the market to stabilise over the next few days as Chinese buyers reassess pricing trends and steel mill margins. Fresh inquiries are likely to emerge next week as participants analyse post-holiday market dynamics and freight movements.

Chinese spot prices stable w-o-w: Benchmark iron ore fines prices in China remained stable w-o-w at $104/t CFR on 8 October. As the weeklong Chinese holiday draws to a close, market participants await activities to emerge in the second half of the trading week

DCE iron ore futures firm: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for the January 2026 contract opened at RMB 790.5/t ($115/t) on 9 October, remaining supportive today.

Rationale

• No confirmed deals for Fe 57% were recorded during this publishing window and not taken for price calculation. Therefore, T1 trade was given 0% weightage in the index calculation. A few deals were already factored into Monday’s assessment. For the detailed methodology, click here.
• BigMint received eighteen (12) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and seven (7) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 100% weightage.

Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports recorded at 132.65 mnt on 9 Oct, remaining largely stable as per data published by SteelHome.

Outlook

BigMint’s analysis indicates that we can expect improved clarity on prices and demand recovery over the next few days. Some miners are expected to conclude tenders for low-grade fines next week.