- Exporters take wait-and-watch stance
- Some deals concluded after holiday break
The Indian iron ore export market remained largely rangebound following the end of Chinese Labour Day holidays, with limited trade activity observed in the past couple of days. Although the market had shown signs of recovery earlier this week, prices witnessed a slight decline today, dampening overall sentiment among exporters.
BigMint’s bi-weekly Indian low-grade iron ore fines (Fe 57%) export index inched down by $1/t w-o-w to $59/t FOB east coast, India, on 8 May. The FOB prices dropped amid the hike in the vessel freight. Trade activity in the Indian Ocean remained weak amid lack of inquiries and buying interest, but a few exporters concluded deals.
Exporters dealing with Fe57% grade fines are reportedly offering discounts of 21-22% compared to the global index. Around 250,000 t iron ore exports deals (Fe50-57%) were concluded with discounts of 20-22% on Fe57% and 26-28% on Fe54% grade fines.
Market participants noted that while there was initial optimism post-holiday, the recent dip in prices has led to a cautious approach among buyers. An exporter said, “We were expecting stronger buying interest, but the price drop has been discouraging. Currently, we are receiving limited inquiries, and most buyers are only purchasing single mine cargoes.”
Indian miners are completing domestic dispatches and not offering for exports due to lower margins. Domestic low-grade iron ore prices witnessed some pressure amid weaker export sentiments.
Meanwhile, some reports suggested that Chinese mills are showing preference for mid-grade fines, driven by improved profit margins in steel production. This has shifted some demand away from low-grade Indian fines, further tightening the scope for sellers.
With limited inquiries from Chinese mills, Indian exporters are expected to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Market participants remain hopeful for clearer directions in the coming days as steel market dynamics evolve.
Chinese spot prices up: Benchmark iron ore fines in China increased by $2/t w-o-w to $100/t CFR on 7 May amid strong trading and improved liquidity for medium-grade fines following market resumption in the last couple of days. The price rise was supported by healthy margins of steel mills, which enabled producers to keep sourcing spot cargoes.
DCE iron ore futures down: Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) for September 2025 contract decreased by RMB 10/t ($2/t) w-o-w to RMB 693.5/t ($97/t) on 8 May. D-o-d, futures fell by RMB 14.5/t ($2/t).
Rationale
- One (1) deal for Fe 57% was reported during this publishing window, and both were considered for price calculations. Therefore, T1 trade was given 50% weightage in the index calculation. For the detailed methodology, click here.
- BigMint received Twenty (20) indicative prices in the current publishing window, and Seventeen (17) were considered for price calculation as T2 inputs and given 50% weightage.
Iron ore inventories at major Chinese ports remained largely stable w-o-w at 136.65 mnt on 8 May, according to data published by SteelHome.
Outlook
As per BigMint’s analysis, iron ore export prices in India will remain rangebound in the coming days on lack of buying interest and bid-offer disparity.
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