India: Iron ore concentrate prices remain firm, market waiting for NMDC’s price revision

• Sellers keep offers firm
• Raipur pellet prices remain stable

Domestic Fe 62% iron ore concentrate prices held stable at INR 5,000/t ($56/t) ex-works Jabalpur as of 7 January, unchanged from the previous assessment on 3 January, as per BigMint’s latest assessment. Market sentiment also remained stable w-o-w, supported by an increase in finished steel prices and an improvement in downstream demand, which continued to lend support to raw material prices in the region. However, fresh deal activity was limited, with only a few transactions reported against ongoing offers.

Similarly, Fe 63% iron ore concentrate prices remained range-bound at INR 5,150-5,150/t ($57/t) ex-works. A persistent shortage of high-grade material continued to underpin prices, even as overall buying interest stayed cautious. New deals remained muted, as most sellers focused on executing previously concluded orders rather than chasing fresh bookings.

A Jabalpur-based seller told BigMint, “We are continuing with our earlier deals and are closely watching NMDC’s price revision to gain clearer direction on prices.”

On the other hand, a Jabalpur-based buyer said, “We are currently well-stocked and hence limiting our purchases. Prices could soften in the coming days, which is why we are adopting a wait-and-watch approach.”

Rationale

• One (1) trade was recorded in this publishing window and was not taken into consideration, receiving a 0% weightage.
• Eight (8) offers and indicative prices were heard, and five (5) were taken into consideration as T2 trades, receiving 50% weightage.

Factors supporting prices

• Odisha iron ore prices inch up: BigMint’s Odisha iron ore fines (Fe 62%) index edged up by INR 50/t ($0.5/t) w-o-w to INR 5,800/t ($65/t) ex-mines on Saturday. Iron ore prices in Odisha remained firm during the week, as assessed on 3 January, driven by healthy trade momentum and a sharp rebound in downstream steel prices. Market participants observed that transactions are increasingly being concluded at higher price levels, while tight availability of material continues to provide strong support, reinforcing the upward bias in prices.
• Pellet prices remain stable in Raipur: PELLEX, BigMint’s bi-weekly domestic Fe 63% pellet index for Raipur, remained unchanged at INR 9,700/t ($108/t) DAP on Tuesday, in line with the previous assessment on 2 January. Pellet prices in the Raipur region held firm over the past couple of days, including 6 January, supported by limited yet steady trade volumes at prevailing offer levels. Market participants noted that select transactions were concluded in certain pockets, providing price stability; however, overall sentiment remained cautious, as continued uncertainty surrounding sponge iron prices restrained aggressive buying.

Outlook

Iron ore concentrate prices are expected to remain range-bound in the coming amid firm steel prices and tight availability of high-grade material. However, muted buying and cautious sentiment may cap any upside. Market direction will largely depend on NMDC’s upcoming price revision and downstream demand clarity.