India: Indonesian thermal coal portside market holds steady amid mixed signals

• Portside thermal coal inventory increased w-o-w
• Coal stocks at thermal power plant declined w-o-w

The Indian portside market for Indonesian thermal coal remained largely unchanged w-o-w. Market sentiment was flat, with limited transactional activity as both buyers and sellers adopted a cautious stance.

Stable prices across key ports

As of 2 May 2025, thermal coal prices across major Indian ports held firm. The 5000 GAR grade remained steady at INR 7,800/t at Kandla, while 4200 GAR coal was quoted at INR 6,200/t in Kandla and INR 6,100/t in Vizag. However, 3400 GAR coal prices fell by INR 100/t to INR 4,800/t at Navlakhi. Reasonable supply from different locations kept Indonesian prices under pressure.

A source said, “Lack of Chinese buying redirected coal shipments to India and this may lead to price softness in the coming days.”

Slight increase in portside inventories

Portside inventories of thermal coal in India saw a marginal rise, signalling increased vessel discharge activity. Stocks at Indian ports climbed up by 7.4% to 13.29 million tonnes (mnt) in week 17 of CY’25, up from 12.37 mnt the previous week. While imports continued to arrive, trade volumes remained subdued, highlighting a stockpiling approach amid uncertain demand signals.

Declining coal stocks at power plants

In contrast to the portside inventory build-up, coal stocks at Indian power plants fell over the same period. As of 30 April, total coal availability at plants dropped to 56.69 mnt, down from 57.66 mnt a week earlier. This stockpile is sufficient to meet around 19 days of coal demand.

However, concerns persist regarding critically low inventory levels at several facilities. These include 12 power plants dependent on domestic coal, six on imported coal, and three using washery rejects. The situation underscores the urgent need for supply replenishment at select locations to avoid operational disruptions.

Decrease in global coal prices

While the domestic market remained stable, global index prices for Indonesian thermal coal showed divergent trends. High-calorific value (CV) 5800 GAR coal prices fell by $0.52/t to $80.31/t. The 4200 GAR grade also saw a decline of $0.57/t, settling at $48.42/t. Conversely, the 3400 GAR grade recorded a modest deccrease of $0.43/t to $33.30/t.

The narrowing price differential between higher- and lower-CV grades suggests evolving buyer preferences or tightening supply for lower-grade material. This shift may reflect a cost-optimisation strategy by importers or emerging constraints in certain supply segments.

Outlook

The Indian portside thermal coal market is expected to trend lower in the short term, with steady imports and balanced port inventories. However, declining coal stocks at power plants may drive a slight uptick in demand.