- Fed rate cut expectations boost global prices
- Year-end holidays expected to slow trade down
India’s imported aluminium scrap prices saw an uptrend w-o-w, following an increase in the London Metal Exchange (LME) price levels. BigMint assessed UAE-origin Tense scrap at $1,925/tonne (t), up by $15/t w-o-w, while UK-origin Taint Tabor C/S (9-10%) stood at $2,010/t, firm w-o-w.
UK-origin Zorba 95/5 stood at $2,260/t up by $10/t w-o-w, while UAE Extrusion 6063 increased by $15/t to 2,635/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, UK-origin Wheel gained by $15/t to $2,625/t w-o-w.
LME prices increase w-o-w; inventories rise
At closing on 2 December, LME aluminium prices stood at $2,895/t, up by $80/t from $2,815/t recorded on 25 November. Meanwhile, inventories at registered LME-warehouses decreased by 10,125 t to 537,900 t from 548,025 t in the previous week, indicating supply concerns.
LME aluminium prices recorded a modest w-o-w gain supported by growing expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December after recent dovish policy signals. Improved risk appetite lifted sentiment across base metals. Supply-side tightness also contributed, with Chinese smelters nearing capacity limits and additional disruptions from the Grundartangi potline shutdown, Alcoa’s Kwinana refinery closure, and production cuts at Century Aluminium’s Iceland operations.
Market insights
Imported aluminium scrap prices have strengthened in line with the uptrend in LME aluminium. The rise in LME prices, supported by tightening global supply conditions and growing expectations of US Fed rate cuts in December, has pushed benchmark levels higher. In turn, this has kept imported scrap offers across major grades elevated.
Despite this bullish backdrop, traders and secondary smelters report that current offer levels remain significantly elevated and largely unworkable for buyers. As a result, overall procurement activity has slowed, with most market participants adopting a cautious wait-and-watch stance in anticipation of a potential price correction.
Additionally, with the year-end approaching, winter setting in, and holidays around the corner, the market has turned more sluggish, and trade activity has slowed down further.
In line with the rise in imported scrap offers, domestic aluminium scrap prices have also moved higher w-o-w across grades. However, casting scrap prices have remained largely rangebound in both Delhi and Chennai.
China silicon
According to BigMint’s assessment, China’s 553-grade silicon prices remained stable at $1,350/t CFR Mundra.
Outlook
Imported aluminium scrap prices are likely to remain rangebound in the near term, with muted buying interest and steady global offers keeping market sentiment cautious. With the year-end approaching, buying activity is also expected to slow further, as holidays in the West typically impact trading volumes and delay procurement decisions.
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