- Tight supply lifts prices, but tepid demand caps gains
- Bid-offer gaps of $30-50/t slow down deal negotiations
India’s imported aluminium scrap prices increased by a marginal $10-20/tonne (t) w-o-w, despite a downtrend in London Metal Exchange (LME) levels w-o-w. However, strong global demand, a recent rise in LME prices to a four-month high, and ongoing supply constraints supported Indian tags, though subdued trading activity limited gains.
Price assessments
BigMint assessed Tense scrap from the US at $2,055/t, up by $10/t w-o-w, while Wheels from the UK stood at $2,600/t (both CFR west coast), up by $20/t w-o-w. Meanwhile, other major scrap grades such as zorba witnessed gains of $40/t w-o-w.
LME prices decline w-o-w
At the time of reporting, LME aluminium prices stood at $2,610/t, down by $30/t w-o-w as compared to $2,640/t last week.
During Week 30 of CY’25 (21-25 July), aluminium prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) hovered around $2,650/t, supported by steady demand. Prices opened in the $2,640-2,650/t range and gradually climbed to $2,660/t by the end of the week.
Additionally, the metal hit a four-month high last week, supported by an improving demand outlook in China and tightening global supply. Market sentiment was further boosted by optimism around US-China trade talks, which could lift industrial metal demand.
Despite the price gains, aluminium stocks at LME-registered warehouses rose 5% w-o-w to 443,320 t.
Market insights
The Indian imported aluminium market continued to witness subdued trading, with buyers cautious amid fluctuating LME levels and uncertain price trends. Demand was slow despite largely stable market rates, and many customers were hesitant to accept higher prices due to ongoing volatility.
Bid-offer gaps persisted, particularly in imported grades such as Taint Tabor, Tense, and extrusion, with disparities ranging between $30-50/t, making negotiations difficult.
A shortage of scrap — both imported and domestic — kept prices firm. While domestic scrap prices were stable due to tight supply and steady demand, the limited availability of imported scrap supported elevated levels.
Domestic Tense scrap prices were steady at INR 200,000/t ex-Chennai, backed by constrained availability and robust local demand.
Meanwhile, ADC12 alloy prices remained strong in both northern and southern markets, supported by consistent demand in the semi-finished segment.
Chinese market updates
China’s aluminium scrap imports increased 11% y-o-y in June and by 7% in the first half of 2025, following a relaxation of import restrictions. The boost came after Chinese authorities eased import curbs on raw materials for secondary high-purity aluminium and secondary deformed aluminium alloys on 15 November 2024.
Silicon price trends
According to BigMint’s assessment, silicon 553 prices from China increased by $80/t w-o-w to $1,485/t CFR Mundra.
China’s silicon metal prices surged due to widespread production cuts, with 90% of the southern factories operating at 25% of their capacity. Losses persisted, but supply-side reforms and anti-dumping measures fuelled strong market confidence and steady price gains.
Outlook
Aluminium prices are expected to stay supported in the short term, driven by steady demand, tight scrap availability, and recent LME gains. However, subdued trading activity and cautious buyer sentiment amid fluctuating prices may limit sharp upward movement. Supply constraints and firm domestic demand could keep market levels elevated.
Leave a Reply