- Markets spooked by Trump tariffs, await clarity
- EC dumping duties on others may benefit India
Indian hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE 1006) export offers to the Middle East (ME) remained silent post-Eid holidays. Market participants in the ME are exhibiting caution post-holidays, and the introduction of US President Trump’s tariffs has caused a global market slowdown, with stakeholders pausing on transactions to gain clarity. “The market is experiencing significant uncertainty due to the Trump tariff announcements, leading to stalled transactions as everyone waits for some stability,” sources informed BigMint.
Furthermore, sluggish demand in the European Union (EU) persists. The European Commission has imposed provisional anti-dumping duties on HRC imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, effective for six months. Duties include 12.8% on Egypt’s Ezz Steel, 6.9% on Japan’s Tokyo Steel, and up to 42.5% on Nippon Steel and other Japanese firms. Vietnam’s Formosa Ha Tinh Steel faces a 12.1% duty, while Hoa Phat Dung Quat is exempted. The EC did not impose duties on Indian exporters, citing lack of evidence of dumping.
1. Indian s offers to EU stable w-o-w: Indian HRC export offers to the EU remained stable at $630-635/t CFR Antwerp w-o-w, due to stricter safeguard measures. European domestic HRC prices are rising, driven by producers’ efforts to increase prices and limited import availability due to trade restrictions. However, buyers remain cautious, citing weak demand. The price growth is largely attributed to trade measures, such as safeguards and anti-dumping policies, rather than real market demand.
2. ME’s imported HRC offers stable: Chinese HRC export offers to the Middle East remained stable w-o-w, holding at $490-500/t CFR UAE. The steady pricing is mainly driven by weak market sentiments and limited trading activity, as buyers have just returned from the Eid holidays but continue to approach the market with caution. In addition, everything remains uncertain after the Trump tariffs, as sellers wait for clarity.
3. China’s HRC offers to Vietnam range-bound: Chinese HRC (SAE1006) export offers to Vietnam remained range-bound amid subdued domestic demand. However, the last heard offers hovered at around $500/t CFR Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC).
Hoa Phat Group has increased its monthly HRC (SAE1006, non-skin-passed) prices by around $6/t for May shipments. Post-revision, prices are approximately at $523/t or VND 13,497,570/t against $517/t seen for the southern region in April, excluding VAT.
HRC futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) stood at RMB 3,260/t ($445/t), dropping by RMB 84/t ($11/t) w-o-w against RMB 3,344/t ($457/t) last week. However, on d-o-d basis, SHFE HRC futures remained range-bound.
Outlook
Global HRC prices are expected to remain largely range-bound in the short term. The Middle East market is seeing cautious trading post- Eid holidays, further compounded by the uncertainty created by the US Trump tariffs, leading to a hold-back from market participants. In the EU, stricter trade measures, including the provisional anti-dumping duties on HRC imports from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam, are likely to support domestic prices. This scenario could create an opportunity for Indian mills to offer in the EU market, as they are not subject to such duties.
Leave a Reply